Match Info

NBL - Round 22

Date: 19 February 2026, Thursday

Location: John Cain Arena (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports


	Melbourne United		South East Melbourne Phoenix

	1	2
			Watch
	2.7	1.42
	2.82	1.44
	2.71	1.42	Watch
	2.63	1.44
	2.81	1.46	Watch
	2.8	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↑ (2.63)	1.44 ↑ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 194.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne United
34.4%

South East Melbourne Phoenix
65.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.7%

65.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

55%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

South East Melbourne Phoenix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne United than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Melbourne United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South East Melbourne Phoenix than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for South East Melbourne Phoenix, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Melbourne United - South East Melbourne Phoenix Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 94:100

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
4. Daniels D.	0. Brown J.
7. Delany F.	30. Foxwell O.
14. Edwards J.	1. Hunter J.
43. Goulding C. (C)	25. Iwundu W.
2. Walker T.	20. Sobey N. (C)
Substitutes
3. Blogg C.	7. Aliir A.
15. Bowen K.	21. Clark I.
35. Doyle M.	11. Foster D.
30. Koppens T.	5. Glover A.
13. Krebs T.	33. Lewis M.
18. Krslovic F.	8. Mitchell D.
9. Machar M.	13. Rosendale L.
12. Wilson T.
Coaches
. Vickerman D.	. King J.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

South East Melbourne may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

South East Melbourne could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 1840:1733. (average 92:86.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 942:847. (average 94.2:84.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		PCT
7	Melbourne United	7	3	4	647:630	0.429
9	South East Melbourne	8	3	5	772:751	0.375

Outrights of Australian NBL for now

Melbourne United: 24.79% South East Melbourne: 8.57%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne United
Australian NBL
14.02.26	Melbourne United - Illawarra Hawks	91:100 ✺
12.02.26	Cairns Taipans - Melbourne United	85:89 ✺
07.02.26	Melbourne United - Adelaide 36ers	76:87 ✺
30.01.26	New Zealand Breakers - Melbourne United	97:95 ✺
25.01.26	Perth Wildcats - Melbourne United	73:74 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLLW
- South East Melbourne Phoenix
Australian NBL
14.02.26	South East Melbourne Phoenix - Tasmania JackJumpers	120:104 ✺
07.02.26	South East Melbourne Phoenix - Sydney Kings	88:114 ✺
05.02.26	New Zealand Breakers - South East Melbourne Phoenix	83:114 ✺
31.01.26	Adelaide 36ers - South East Melbourne Phoenix	77:97 ✺
28.01.26	Perth Wildcats - South East Melbourne Phoenix	101:93 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NBL
06.12.25	South East Melbourne Phoenix - Melbourne United	111:86
08.11.25	South East Melbourne Phoenix - Melbourne United	81:92
25.09.25	Melbourne United - South East Melbourne Phoenix	103:83
08.02.25	Melbourne United - South East Melbourne Phoenix	103:93
14.12.24	South East Melbourne Phoenix - Melbourne United	109:97
19.10.24	Melbourne United - South East Melbourne Phoenix	84:93
26.09.24	South East Melbourne Phoenix - Melbourne United	84:96

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