Match Info

NBL - Round 1

Date: 22 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Brisbane Entertainment Centre (Brisbane)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Slovenia	SportKlub 3


	Brisbane Bullets		New Zealand Breakers

	1	2
			Watch
	1.95	1.80
	1.85	1.96
	1.96	1.85
	1.77	1.97	Watch
	1.88	1.89
	2.04	1.81	Watch
	2.05	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.56)	1.87 ↓ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 189.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brisbane Bullets
49.2%

New Zealand Breakers
50.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59.2%

40.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brisbane Bullets has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Brisbane Bullets's form might have worsened.

New Zealand Breakers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting New Zealand Breakers's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	0%	72.7%

Brisbane Bullets - New Zealand Breakers Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Brisbane Bullets will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). NZ Breakers will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for NZ Breakers: 46.4% – 99%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 180.5, OT - over (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 94:96

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Harrison T.	8. Bediako C.
4. Hinton N.	6. Jackson-Cartwright P.
3. Mackinnon M.	2. Le'Afa I.
1. Velicka A.	3. Mennenga S.
2. Williams J.	34. Vasiljevic D.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brisbane Bullets won 4.

Brisbane Bullets could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Brisbane Bullets has recorded 11 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1713:1769 (averaging 85.7:88.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Brisbane Bullets against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 731:762 goals (averaging 81.2:84.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		PCT
4	New Zealand Breakers	8	4	4	737:712	0.500
8	Brisbane Bullets	7	3	4	659:690	0.429

Outrights of Australian NBL for now

Brisbane Bullets: 4.85% New Zealand Breakers: 4.11%

Last Results with these Odds

New Zealand Breakers - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 40.84%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brisbane Bullets
Club Friendly Basketball
12.09.26	Brisbane Bullets - Cairns Taipans	98:129
Australian NBL
20.02.26	Brisbane Bullets - Sydney Kings	77:117 ✺
13.02.26	Perth Wildcats - Brisbane Bullets	94:75 ✺
08.02.26	Brisbane Bullets - Cairns Taipans	72:81 ✺
06.02.26	Tasmania JackJumpers - Brisbane Bullets	114:70 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- New Zealand Breakers
Australian NBL
20.09.26	New Zealand Breakers - Illawarra Hawks	95:81 ✺
Club Friendly Basketball
08.09.26	South East Melbourne Phoenix - New Zealand Breakers	100:103
06.09.26	Tasmania JackJumpers - New Zealand Breakers	86:96
Australian NBL
22.02.26	Adelaide 36ers - New Zealand Breakers	107:111 ✺
19.02.26	New Zealand Breakers - Cairns Taipans	115:84 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NBL
22.12.25	Brisbane Bullets - New Zealand Breakers	99:85
12.11.25	Brisbane Bullets - New Zealand Breakers	84:113
23.10.25	New Zealand Breakers - Brisbane Bullets	83:84
19.09.25	New Zealand Breakers - Brisbane Bullets	95:104
24.01.25	New Zealand Breakers - Brisbane Bullets	87:93
08.01.25	Brisbane Bullets - New Zealand Breakers	83:74
17.10.24	Brisbane Bullets - New Zealand Breakers	84:73

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