Match Info

Euroleague - Round 5

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday

Location: Beogradska arena (Belgrade)

Referee: Racys S. (Ltu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Czech-republic	Oneplay Sport 1
France	SKWeek App
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports 5
Russia	Okko Sport
Turkey	S Sport+
World	EuroLeague TV


	Crvena Zvezda		Real Madrid

	1	2
	2.5	1.56	Watch
	2.35	1.62
	2.63	1.54
	2.41	1.56	Watch
	2.31	1.66	Watch
	2.33	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.2)	1.59 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 165.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crvena Zvezda
39.6%

Real Madrid
60.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

57.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

56.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crvena Zvezda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crvena Zvezda than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20.7%	0%	79.3%

Crvena Zvezda - Real Madrid Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 173, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -4.5, OT - Real Madrid (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (23 of 29 users predict this - 79.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.57% – 94.05%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Crvena Zvezda (votes: 1 - 6.7%). Real Madrid (votes: 14 - 93.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 81:85

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Kalinic N.	6. Abalde A.
0. Miller-McIntyre C.	14. Deck G.
95. Moneke C.	0. Lyles T.
20. Motiejunas D.	12. Maledon T.
33. Nwora J.	22. Tavares E.
Substitutes
7. Davidovac D.	7. Campazzo F.
15. Izundu E.	24. Feliz A.
2. Miljenovic S.	20. Fernando B.
5. Nedeljkovic A.	16. Garuba U.
37. Ojeleye S.	11. Hezonja M.
44. Radosic O.	23. Llull S.
99. Yago	8. Okeke C.
Coaches
. Obradovic S.	. Scariolo S.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Crvena Zvezda won 0.

In recent matches, Crvena Zvezda has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Real Madrid is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Real Madrid may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Real Madrid has had a series of home games.

Real Madrid might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Crvena Zvezda won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 14 matches, and goals 1363:1546. (average 68.2:77.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Crvena Zvezda won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 708:758. (average 70.8:75.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Crvena Zvezda - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.86%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Real Madrid - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 57.14%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KK Crvena Zvezda
Euroleague
14.10.25	Crvena Zvezda - Žalgiris Kaunas	88:79 ✺
10.10.25	Fenerbahçe - Crvena Zvezda	81:86 ✺
Adriatic League
06.10.25	Crvena Zvezda - KK Zadar	79:85 ✺
Euroleague
02.10.25	Bayern München - Crvena Zvezda	97:88 ✺
30.09.25	Crvena Zvezda - Olimpia Milano	82:92 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWLLL
- Real Madrid basketball
Euroleague
15.10.25	Real Madrid - Partizan Belgrade	93:86 ✺
Spanish ACB League
12.10.25	Baskonia - Real Madrid	105:100 ✺
Euroleague
09.10.25	Real Madrid - ASVEL Basket	85:72 ✺
Spanish ACB League
05.10.25	Real Madrid - Gran Canaria 2014	81:71 ✺
Euroleague
02.10.25	Real Madrid - Olympiacos Piraeus	89:77 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Euroleague
28.03.25	Crvena Zvezda - Real Madrid	72:78
24.10.24	Real Madrid - Crvena Zvezda	95:72
29.03.24	Real Madrid - Crvena Zvezda	101:94
19.12.23	Crvena Zvezda - Real Madrid	58:72
10.01.23	Crvena Zvezda - Real Madrid	59:79
21.10.22	Real Madrid - Crvena Zvezda	72:56
08.03.22	Crvena Zvezda - Real Madrid	65:62

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