Match Info

UK Open - Second stage - 1/8-finals

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Butlin's Minehead Resort (Minehead)


	Michael Van Gerwen		James Wade

	1	2
	1.5	2.63	Watch
	1.48	2.35
	1.49	2.37	Watch
	1.53	2.5
	1.51	2.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.49)	2.46 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 16.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Michael Van Gerwen
62.1%

James Wade
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.4%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

39.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Michael Van Gerwen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

James Wade has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Michael Van Gerwen than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for James Wade than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Michael Van Gerwen - James Wade Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 10:8

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Preview

Van Gerwen is ranked World Ranking: 4. Wade is ranked World Ranking: 8.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Van Gerwen won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Wade may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Van Gerwen will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Van Gerwen won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 126:111. (average 6.3:5.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Michael Van Gerwen - the odds 1.49 are the expected chance of winning is 61.4%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Michael Van Gerwen
Darts
07.03.26	Kai Gotthard - Michael Van Gerwen	6:10 ✺
06.03.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Nathan Aspinall	10:8 ✺
05.03.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Luke Humphries	1:6 ✺
26.02.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Gerwyn Price	5:6 ✺
19.02.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Luke Littler	Littler L. ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWLL?
- James Wade
Darts
07.03.26	Gabriel Clemens - James Wade	2:10 ✺
06.03.26	Chris Dobey - James Wade	9:10 ✺
21.02.26	James Wade - Cameron Menzies	0:6 ✺
17.02.26	James Wade - Cameron Crabtree	1:6 ✺
10.02.26	Dave Chisnall - James Wade	6:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Darts
18.09.24	James Wade - Michael Van Gerwen	3:6
31.08.24	Michael Van Gerwen - James Wade	6:2
13.06.22	Michael Van Gerwen - James Wade	10:4 best of 19 legs
11.06.22	Michael Van Gerwen - James Wade	4:10 best of 19 legs
04.06.22	Michael Van Gerwen - James Wade	8:3 best of 15 legs
01.05.22	Michael Van Gerwen - James Wade	6:5 best of 11 legs
28.04.22	James Wade - Michael Van Gerwen	6:5 best of 11 legs

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