Match Info

Liiga

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday

Location: Isomäki Areena (Pori)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Ässät		HPK

	1	X	2
	1.66	4.50	4.00
	1.83	4.20	3.40
	1.79	4.10	3.80
	1.78	3.83	4.01
	1.75	4.13	3.99	Watch
	1.76	3.75	3.95
	1.78	4.20	3.81	Watch
	1.78	4.00	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.95)	4.09 ↑ (3.75)	3.84 ↑ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ässät
52.9%

Draw
22.8%

HPK
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

24.9%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.3%

26.7%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ässät has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

HPK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ässät than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HPK than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Ässät - HPK Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Ässät will win (votes: 1 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Bednar J. (G)	1. Saarinen K. (G)
79. Nikkila P. (A)	43. Kukkonen M. (A)
61. Jurgens C.	4. Jokirinne V.
47. Pinard S.	95. Ranford B.
10. Hillis C.	12. Paivarinta S. (A)
34. Doucet A.	10. Vesterinen R.
Line 2
37. Maatta R. (A)	7. Pyke G.
7. Pulli J.	16. Gabrielsson H.
16. Noiva N.	34. Palola O.
19. Juhola P.	25. Huttunen H.
36. Bjorkqvist K.	94. Hakulinen A. (C)
Line 3
55. Riihinen P.	91. Piipponen S.
80. Nurmi P.	38. Wallenius E.
8. Olofsson J.	11. de Jong E.
14. Sebok B.	15. Korhonen O.
63. Kostilainen S.	28. Kukuca A.
Line 4
28. Saarimaki M.	5. Andzans A.
26. Kim A.	81. Oden J.
74. Tiivola P. (C)	64. Kainulainen H.
18. Ylitalo O.	44. Kopiloff O.
Substitutes
72. Ojantakanen K.	8. Alitalo V.
33. Taponen R. (G)	65. Crespin J. (G)
Coaches
. Pikkarainen J.	. Manner M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
00:38, 1 - 0, Maatta R. (G), Doucet A. (A), Pinard S. (A2)
04:08, Hakulinen A. (2 min),
14:55, Pyke G. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 2)
03:53, 1 - 1, Wallenius E. (G), de Jong E. (A), Korhonen O. (A2)
06:05, 1 - 2, Vesterinen R. (G), Ranford B. (A), Paivarinta S. (A2)
14:06, Nikkila P. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
07:41, (2 min),
15:51, 2 - 2, Olofsson J. (G), Kostilainen S. (A), Sebok B. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (0 - 1)
1, Palola O. (Penalty Shot),
1, Hillis C. (Penalty Shot),
2, Vesterinen R. (Penalty Shot),
2, Noiva N. (Penalty Shot),
3, Paivarinta S. (Penalty Shot),
3, Pinard S. (Penalty Shot),
4, Doucet A. (Penalty Shot),
4, de Jong E. (Penalty Shot),
5, Olofsson J. (Penalty Shot),
5, Kopiloff O. (Penalty Shot),
6, Juhola P. (Penalty Shot),
6, Ranford B. (Penalty Shot),
7, Hillis C. (Penalty Shot),
7, Jokirinne V. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

This match features one of the top teams against an opponent battling near the bottom (ranked 4th in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - Quarter - finals and 13th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ässät won 1.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Ässät may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, HPK has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Ässät holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Ässät has recorded 11 wins, 1 draw, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 48:43 (averaging 2.4:2.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ässät against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 32:19 goals (averaging 2.9:1.7 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Hameenlinna: 2.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
3	Assat	12	6	1	2	3	30:27	22
12	Hameenlinna	11	3	3	0	5	23:32	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ässät hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
07.10.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - Ässät	0:1 ✺
03.10.26	Lukko - Ässät	2:5 ✺
02.10.26	Ässät - Lukko	0:3 ✺
26.09.26	HPK - Ässät	5:4 OT ✺
25.09.26	Ässät - SaiPa	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWLLL
- HPK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
03.10.26	HPK - Kärpät	2:1 OT ✺
02.10.26	HPK - JYP	2:1 ✺
29.09.26	Jokerit - HPK	3:0 ✺
26.09.26	HPK - Ässät	5:4 OT ✺
22.09.26	HPK - Lukko	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
26.09.26	HPK - Ässät	5:4 OT
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
20.08.26	HPK - Ässät	3:0
12.08.26	Ässät - HPK	3:1
Finnish Pitsiturnaus
07.08.26	Ässät - HPK	0:0
Finnish SM-liiga
07.02.26	HPK - Ässät	3:1
27.12.25	Ässät - HPK	4:3 OT
03.10.25	HPK - Ässät	2:4

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