Match Info

Liiga

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Pohjantahti-Areena (Hämeenlinna)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	HPK		Kärpät

	1	X	2
	2.75	4	2.15
	2.75	3.90	2.18
	3.05	3.7	2.15
	3.09	3.68	2.1
	3.01	3.91	2.1	Watch
	3.05	3.6	2.07
	2.96	4.1	2.08	Watch
	2.85	3.85	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↑ (2.66)	3.84 ↑ (3.8)	2.12 ↓ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

HPK
31.8%

Draw
24.3%

Kärpät
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

24.5%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

26.7%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HPK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Kärpät has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HPK than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for HPK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kärpät, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

HPK - Kärpät Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

#ad

Lineups

Line 1
65. Crespin J. (G)	32. Vedenpaa V. (G)
43. Kukkonen M. (A)	21. Matinmikko A.
4. Jokirinne V.	25. Paaso A.
95. Ranford B.	16. Okany A.
12. Paivarinta S. (A)	33. Hirvonen R.
10. Vesterinen R.	82. Pakkila E.
Line 2
6. Lehtonen O.	9. Soini K.
16. Gabrielsson H.	26. Tichacek J.
34. Palola O.	73. Erholtz E. (C)
25. Huttunen H.	31. Koivistoinen E. (A)
94. Hakulinen A. (C)	93. Kantner M.
Line 3
91. Piipponen S.	3. Kokkonen L.
38. Wallenius E.	2. Rissanen R.
11. de Jong E.	11. Tornqvist H.
15. Korhonen O.	19. Tikka T.
28. Kukuca A.	27. Ratinen S.
Line 4
5. Andzans A.	61. Salmela T. (A)
81. Oden J.	62. Nilsson W.
64. Kainulainen H.	80. Korpimaki M.
44. Kopiloff O.	59. Hermonen J.
Substitutes
8. Alitalo V.	41. Rubin N. (G)
1. Saarinen K. (G)	8. Tieksola T.
Coaches
. Manner M.	. Karjalainen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
08:16, Palola O. (2 min),
15:47, 1 - 0, Oden J. (G), Kainulainen H. (A), Kopiloff O. (A2)
18:13, Korhonen O. (5 min),
18:56, Erholtz E. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 1)
05:21, 1 - 1, Pakkila E. (G), Rissanen R. (A), Erholtz E. (A2)
Overtime (1 - 0)
00:52, 2 - 1, Paivarinta S. (G), Ranford B. (A), Jokirinne V. (A2)

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 13th and 6th in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - 1/8 - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Kärpät may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, HPK has enjoyed a run of consecutive matches in front of its home crowd.

Recently, Kärpät has had a run of games away from home.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, HPK has recorded 8 wins, 0 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 45:60 (averaging 2.3:3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for HPK against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with 25:27 goals (averaging 2.5:2.7 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Hameenlinna: 1.94%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	Karpat	13	5	2	3	3	35:34	22
10	Hameenlinna	12	4	3	0	5	28:35	18

Last Results with these Odds

HPK - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 35.08%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Kärpät - the odds 2.31 are the expected chance of winning is 40.41%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HPK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
02.10.26	HPK - JYP	2:1 ✺
29.09.26	Jokerit - HPK	3:0 ✺
26.09.26	HPK - Ässät	5:4 OT ✺
22.09.26	HPK - Lukko	1:3 ✺
19.09.26	HPK - TPS	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WLWLW
- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
02.10.26	Kiekko-Espoo - Kärpät	1:3 ✺
30.09.26	Kärpät - SaiPa	4:1 ✺
26.09.26	Vaasan Sport - Kärpät	1:2 ✺
23.09.26	HIFK - Kärpät	3:1 ✺
22.09.26	Tappara - Kärpät	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
07.03.26	HPK - Kärpät	6:3
06.03.26	HPK - Kärpät	3:2 OT
18.10.25	Kärpät - HPK	1:2
17.10.25	Kärpät - HPK	5:2
22.01.25	Kärpät - HPK	0:3
13.12.24	HPK - Kärpät	0:4
23.11.24	Kärpät - HPK	4:5 OT

HPK - Kärpät: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide