Match Info

Liiga

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday

Location: Pohjantahti-Areena (Hämeenlinna)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	HPK		JYP

	1	X	2
	3.20	4.00	1.91
	2.95	4.10	2.00
	3.30	4.00	1.96	Watch
	3.15	4.02	1.98
	3.17	4.06	1.99	Watch
	3.10	3.95	1.96
	3.19	4.25	1.95	Watch
	3.05	4.00	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.14 ↑ (2.69)	4.05 ↑ (3.94)	1.97 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

HPK
29.7%

Draw
23%

JYP
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

23.7%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

26.1%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HPK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

JYP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting JYP's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HPK than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for HPK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for JYP than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for JYP, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

HPK - JYP Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. JYP will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

#ad

Lineups

Line 1
1. Saarinen K. (G)	35. Salminen O. (G)
43. Kukkonen M. (A)	44. Vatanen S.
4. Jokirinne V.	31. Peltola E. (A)
95. Ranford B.	77. Tukiainen L.
12. Paivarinta S. (A)	28. Lassila J. (C)
10. Vesterinen R.	14. Costmar A.
Line 2
5. Andzans A.	63. Bourque T.
16. Gabrielsson H.	3. Arola J.
34. Palola O.	39. Ojantakanen V.
25. Huttunen H.	8. Newkirk R.
94. Hakulinen A. (C)	82. Pesonen H. (A)
Line 3
91. Piipponen S.	21. Vuontisvaara O.
38. Wallenius E.	32. Setkov M.
11. de Jong E.	92. Vidgren A.
15. Korhonen O.	7. True A.
28. Kukuca A.	40. Torgersson D.
Line 4
6. Lehtonen O.	22. Vaisanen V.
8. Alitalo V.	24. Huttu E.
81. Oden J.	16. Liljamo T.
64. Kainulainen H.	17. Makinen O.
44. Kopiloff O.	27. Korjus J.
Substitutes
65. Crespin J. (G)	34. Setanen O. (G)
Coaches
. Manner M.	. Matikainen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
07:29, 1 - 0, Paivarinta S. (G), Kukkonen M. (A), Hakulinen A. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 1)
01:15, Kukuca A. (2 min),
03:22, Paivarinta S. (2 min),
03:49, 1 - 1, Tukiainen L. (G), Vatanen S. (A),
18:02, Lassila J. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
06:37, Andzans A. (2 min),
14:58, 2 - 1, Jokirinne V. (G), Ranford B. (A), Paivarinta S. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 3.

HPK has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

JYP is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

HPK may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, JYP has had a run of games away from home.

JYP is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, HPK has recorded 13 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 61:50 (averaging 3.1:2.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for HPK against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 36:27 goals (averaging 3.3:2.5 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Hameenlinna: 2.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	JYP	10	7	0	0	3	30:25	21
12	Hameenlinna	11	3	3	0	5	23:32	15

Last Results with these Odds

HPK - the odds 2.69 are the expected chance of winning is 34.74%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HPK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
29.09.26	Jokerit - HPK	3:0 ✺
26.09.26	HPK - Ässät	5:4 OT ✺
22.09.26	HPK - Lukko	1:3 ✺
19.09.26	HPK - TPS	3:1 ✺
15.09.26	KalPa - HPK	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWLWL
- JYP Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
25.09.26	HIFK - JYP	3:4 ✺
19.09.26	Pelicans - JYP	1:3 ✺
17.09.26	Jokerit - JYP	2:4 ✺
16.09.26	KooKoo - JYP	3:5 ✺
09.09.26	Lukko - JYP	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
05.02.26	JYP - HPK	4:5 penalties
30.12.25	HPK - JYP	2:3 OT
19.12.25	HPK - JYP	1:4
12.12.25	JYP - HPK	3:4 penalties
21.02.25	HPK - JYP	3:0
12.02.25	JYP - HPK	2:1 penalties
11.01.25	HPK - JYP	3:2

Upcoming Matches