Match Info

VHL

Date: 16 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Ledovy Dvorets (Tula)


	AKM		Chelmet

	1	X	2
	1.82	4.33	3.48	Watch
	1.88	4.19	3.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↑ (1.65)	4.26 ↑ (4)	3.36 ↓ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AKM
50.4%

Draw
21.9%

Chelmet
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

23.1%

21%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.1%

22.6%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AKM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AKM's form might have worsened.

Chelmet has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chelmet's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AKM than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AKM, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelmet than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chelmet, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

AKM - Chelmet Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
91. Pastukh V. (G)	93. Mosharov D. (G)
71. Zaitsev D.	42. Yusupov V.
25. Puchkov Y. (C)	79. Savelyev A.
70. Dyukarev V.	29. Mokin M. (A)
88. Shiafotdinov K. (A)	37. Mits Z.
15. Yermakov Y.	14. Zinovyev I. (C)
Line 2
67. Ivanov G.	18. Mikanovich D.
9. Goryachev A. (A)	66. Drugalya S.
32. Manin Y.	97. Matyushin A.
77. Sharifyanov T.	57. Telegin N.
28. Tsybin M.	10. Nizameev A.
Line 3
7. Fyodorov S.	43. Rodionov M.
38. Bulygin D.	90. Klimontov K. (A)
17. Rtishchev N.	34. Gusmanov F.
13. Bryntsev M.	23. Shcheglov M.
12. Rybakov V.	33. Rykmanov A.
Line 4
33. Gorodetsky B.	17. Yekimov N.
80. Strugov Y.	48. Pronichkin A.
79. Shulenin G.	16. Shen A.
90. Komissarov L.	67. Shchekoldin K.
86. Ignatov S.	46. Shaveko V.
Substitutes
60. Kanarsky I. (G)	40. Sherstnev S. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 2)
04:58, 1 - 0, Sharifyanov T. (G), Dyukarev V. (A), Ivanov G. (A2)
11:03, 1 - 1, Shcheglov M. (G), Rykmanov A. (A),
13:51, 1 - 2, Shen A. (G),
17:23, 2 - 2, Ivanov G. (G), Goryachev A. (A), Ignatov S. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 1)
03:58, 2 - 3, Zinovyev I. (G), Rodionov M. (A), Mokin M. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 1)
06:12, 2 - 4, Rykmanov A. (Penalty Shot),
10:20, 3 - 4, Puchkov Y. (G),
14:38, 4 - 4, Bryntsev M. (G), Yermakov Y. (A), Rybakov V. (A2)
Overtime (1 - 0)
01:59, 5 - 4, Ivanov G. (G), Yermakov Y. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AKM won 4.

AKM is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Chelmet's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

AKM may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Chelmet has had a series of home games.

AKM could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that AKM will win today's game, with odds of 1.83.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, AKM won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:17. (average 2.9:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, AKM won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 2.8:2.3).

Last Results with these Odds

AKM - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 55.94%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AKM Tula
VHL
14.09.25	AKM - Magnitka Magnitogorsk	2:6 ✺
12.09.25	AKM - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	3:2 penalties ✺
07.09.25	Torpedo-Gorky - AKM	2:3 penalties ✺
05.09.25	Khimik - AKM	2:5 ✺
03.09.25	Zvezda Moscow - AKM	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 LWWWW
- HC Chelmet
VHL
12.09.25	Chelmet - Izhstal	3:1 ✺
10.09.25	Chelmet - Toros Neftekamsk	4:2 ✺
08.09.25	Chelmet - Molot Perm	1:3 ✺
06.09.25	Chelmet - Olympia Kirovo-Chepetsk	1:2 ✺
02.09.25	Chelmet - Gornyak-UGMK	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

VHL
13.01.25	AKM - Chelmet	3:4
08.11.24	Chelmet - AKM	1:3
04.02.24	Chelmet - AKM	1:2
20.09.23	AKM - Chelmet	3:0
14.01.23	AKM - Chelmet	4:3 OT
08.10.22	Chelmet - AKM	1:3
23.01.22	AKM - Chelmet	1:2

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