Match Info

AHL

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Mechanics Bank Arena (Bakersfield, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Flohockey


	Bakersfield Condors		Texas Stars

	1	X	2
	2.15	4.2	2.45	Watch
	2.4	3.95	2.4
	2.44	4.3	2.35
	2.43	4.37	2.33	Watch
	2.38	4	2.3
	2.43	4.36	2.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.3)	4.2 ↑ (3.95)	2.36 ↓ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bakersfield Condors
38.9%

Draw
22%

Texas Stars
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

23.1%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

24.8%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bakersfield Condors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Texas Stars has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bakersfield Condors than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Texas Stars than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Bakersfield Condors - Texas Stars Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
90. Tomkins M. (G)	30. Tiefensee A. (G)
47. Bloom J.	35. Anderson J.
66. Brown M.	27. Becker J.
73. Carfagna D.	3. Bertucci T.
64. Clattenburg C.	21. Chisholm S.
19. D'Amato D.	32. Hanas C.
55. Dineen C. (A)	14. Hryckowian D.
39. Griffith S. (C)	19. Hughes C. (A)
52. Hamblin J. (A)	18. Kolyachonok V.
53. Howard I.	4. Krys L.
23. Hutson Q.	17. Lind K. (A)
37. Leppanen A.	37. Looft K.
57. Marjala V.	20. Martino A.
78. Millman M.	25. McDonald K.
43. Petrov M.	16. McKenzie C. (C)
68. Pitlick R.	11. Scott H.
8. Poulin S.	13. Seminoff M.
77. Prokop L.	40. Stranges A.
75. Regula A.	2. Taylor T.
Substitutes
30. Pickard C. (G)	1. Poirier R. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (3 - 1)
03:19, 0 - 1, Chisholm S. (G), Martino A. (A), McDonald K. (A2)
07:35, 1 - 1, Bloom J. (G), Petrov M. (A), Poulin S. (A2)
13:26, 2 - 1, Poulin S. (G), Dineen C. (A), Pitlick R. (A2)
18:53, 3 - 1, Howard I. (G), Carfagna D. (A), Marjala V. (A2)
3rd Period (3 - 2)
03:41, 4 - 1, Dineen C. (G), Pitlick R. (A),
06:54, 5 - 1, Hamblin J. (G), Griffith S. (A), Pitlick R. (A2)
07:09, 5 - 2, Scott H. (G), Looft K. (A), Hryckowian D. (A2)
08:54, 5 - 3, Hanas C. (G), Kolyachonok V. (A),
18:13, 6 - 3, Howard I. (G), Hutson Q. (A),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bakersfield won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Texas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Texas has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bakersfield won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 64:58. (average 3.2:2.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Bakersfield won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 35:27. (average 3.9:3).

Last Results with these Odds

Bakersfield Condors - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 39.64%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bakersfield Condors
AHL
27.03.26	Bakersfield Condors - Texas Stars	4:3 ✺
21.03.26	Bakersfield Condors - Calgary Wranglers	1:0 ✺
20.03.26	San Diego Gulls - Bakersfield Condors	7:4 ✺
14.03.26	Texas Stars - Bakersfield Condors	6:2 ✺
13.03.26	Texas Stars - Bakersfield Condors	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWLLW
- Texas Stars
AHL
27.03.26	Bakersfield Condors - Texas Stars	4:3 ✺
25.03.26	San Jose Barracuda - Texas Stars	2:3 ✺
22.03.26	Henderson Silver Knights - Texas Stars	7:2 ✺
21.03.26	Henderson Silver Knights - Texas Stars	3:6 ✺
18.03.26	Texas Stars - Chicago Wolves	5:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

AHL
27.03.26	Bakersfield Condors - Texas Stars	4:3
14.03.26	Texas Stars - Bakersfield Condors	6:2
13.03.26	Texas Stars - Bakersfield Condors	1:4
03.02.24	Texas Stars - Bakersfield Condors	1:2
02.02.24	Texas Stars - Bakersfield Condors	3:5
02.12.23	Bakersfield Condors - Texas Stars	6:4
01.12.23	Bakersfield Condors - Texas Stars	3:4 penalties

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