Match Info

AHL

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: CAA Arena (Belleville, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Flohockey


	Belleville Senators		Springfield Thunderbirds

	1	X	2
	2.15	4.2	2.45	Watch
	2.28	4.1	2.5
	2.31	4.4	2.46
	2.27	4.45	2.47	Watch
	2.2	4.2	2.5
	2.25	4.25	2.4	Watch
	2.12	4	2.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.11)	4.23 ↑ (3.8)	2.52 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belleville Senators
41.5%

Draw
21.9%

Springfield Thunderbirds
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

24.1%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

25.4%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belleville Senators has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Springfield Thunderbirds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belleville Senators than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Springfield Thunderbirds than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Belleville Senators - Springfield Thunderbirds Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Sogaard M. (G)	40. Cranley W. (G)
58. Bolduc S.	12. Bordeleau T.
16. Boucher T.	9. Buchinger M.
13. Bourgault X.	42. Burns Q.
92. Clarke G.	14. Dean Z.
10. Daoust P.	29. Dube D.
29. Hamara T.	45. Gaudet M.
14. Harrington S. (A)	33. Gauthier J.
42. Hodgson H.	41. Kaskimaki A.
43. Kaliyev A.	13. Kessy K.
21. Kidney R.	11. McGing H.
15. Lycksell O.	37. Newpower W.
25. O'Rourke R.	18. Pekarcik J.
32. Pettersson O.	22. Peterson D.
22. Pilon G. (C)	36. Romano A.
19. Rees J.	43. Rosen C. (A)
44. Toure D.	55. Skinner H.
27. Washkurak K. (A)	49. Stancl J.
26. Yakemchuk C.	88. Wagner C. (C)
Substitutes
35. Merilainen L. (G)	30. Romanov G. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 3)
01:48, 0 - 1, Kaskimaki A. (G),
05:32, 0 - 2, Peterson D. (G),
07:48, 1 - 2, Boucher T. (G), Clarke G. (A),
16:24, 1 - 3, Pekarcik J. (G), Dean Z. (A), Gauthier J. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 2)
00:55, 2 - 3, Bolduc S. (G),
01:50, 2 - 4, Peterson D. (G),
05:42, 2 - 5, Dube D. (G), Wagner C. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
17:45, 3 - 5, Yakemchuk C. (G), Daoust P. (A), Bourgault X. (A2)

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 6 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Belleville won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Springfield may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

We predict that Belleville will win today's game, with odds of 2.15.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Belleville won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 51:69. (average 2.6:3.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Belleville won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:27. (average 2.9:3).

Last Results with these Odds

Belleville Senators - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 43.39%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.

Springfield Thunderbirds - the odds 2.82 are the expected chance of winning is 32.52%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Belleville Senators
AHL
20.03.26	Belleville Senators - Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins	1:2 penalties ✺
18.03.26	Belleville Senators - Cleveland Monsters	2:7 ✺
15.03.26	Hershey Bears - Belleville Senators	2:5 ✺
14.03.26	Hershey Bears - Belleville Senators	3:6 ✺
07.03.26	Belleville Senators - Utica Comets	7:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 LLWWW
- Springfield Thunderbirds
AHL
20.03.26	Laval Rocket - Springfield Thunderbirds	4:1 ✺
15.03.26	Providence Bruins - Springfield Thunderbirds	3:4 ✺
14.03.26	Springfield Thunderbirds - Utica Comets	6:3 ✺
11.03.26	Springfield Thunderbirds - Providence Bruins	2:3 OT ✺
07.03.26	Springfield Thunderbirds - Iowa Wild	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

AHL
24.01.26	Springfield Thunderbirds - Belleville Senators	0:1
11.04.25	Springfield Thunderbirds - Belleville Senators	2:4
21.12.24	Belleville Senators - Springfield Thunderbirds	5:2
05.04.24	Belleville Senators - Springfield Thunderbirds	3:0
03.11.23	Springfield Thunderbirds - Belleville Senators	6:3
28.01.23	Springfield Thunderbirds - Belleville Senators	6:1
27.01.23	Springfield Thunderbirds - Belleville Senators	5:1

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