The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Calgary Flames 33.7%
Draw 21.8%
Toronto Maple Leafs 44.4%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
36.5%
22.4%
41.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37.8%
23.2%
39%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Calgary Flames has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)
Toronto Maple Leafs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Calgary Flames than the current prediction. (+4.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (-5.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toronto Maple Leafs, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
11.1%
11.1%
77.8%
Calgary Flames - Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Calgary will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Toronto will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Confidence interval (95%) for Toronto: 50.6% โ 100%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Calgary (votes: 1 - 25%). Toronto (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
DC - Toronto (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
AH -1.5, OT - Toronto (2.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
AH -1 - Toronto (2.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
DNB - Toronto (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
EH +1 - Toronto (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Calgary (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Toronto (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:4
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Lineups
Line 1
1. Cooley D. (G)
72. Bobrovsky S. (G)
71. Nemec S.
43. Raddysh D.
7. Bahl K.
22. McCabe J.
27. Coronato M.
96. Roslovic J.
11. Backlund M.
34. Matthews A. (C)
86. Farabee J. (A)
53. Cowan E.
Line 2
28. Whitecloud Z. (A)
28. Stecher T.
55. Middleton J.
44. Rielly M. (A)
61. Suniev A.
88. Nylander W.
16. Frost M.
20. Paul N.
17. Sharangovich Y.
86. Marchenko K.
Line 3
19. Parekh Z.
95. Ekman-Larsson O.
37. Kuznetsov Y.
36. Mermis D.
22. Strome R. (A)
71. Lettieri V.
76. Pospisil M.
15. Sissons C.
92. Gridin M.
92. McKenna G.
Line 4
43. Klapka A.
19. MacEwen Z.
38. Castagna J.
73. Blueger T.
78. Othmann B.
24. Duhaime B.
Substitutes
32. Wolf D. (G)
41. Stolarz A. (G)
Coaches
. Huska R.
. Hiller J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Period (2 - 0)
04:56, Mermis D. (2 min),
10:05, 1 - 0, Gridin M. (G), Pospisil M. (A), Nemec S. (A2)
11:50, 2 - 0, Backlund M. (G), Coronato M. (A), Farabee J. (A2)
12:09, Cooley D. (2 min),
16:48, Middleton J. (5 min),
16:48, MacEwen Z. (5 min),
19:42, Cowan E. (2 min),
19:42, Pospisil M. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
00:25, 3 - 0, Gridin M. (G), Parekh Z. (A), Cooley D. (A2)
05:45, Bobrovsky S. (2 min),
12:54, 3 - 1, Cowan E. (G), Stecher T. (A), Rielly M. (A2)
15:40, Backlund M. (2 min),
3rd Period (2 - 1)
03:15, Nylander W. (2 min),
06:06, 3 - 2, Nylander W. (G), Roslovic J. (A), Matthews A. (A2)
07:04, Othmann B. (2 min),
07:04, Matthews A. (2 min),
12:21, Matthews A. (2 min),
18:35, 4 - 2, Farabee J. (G), Coronato M. (A), Kuznetsov Y. (A2)
19:21, 5 - 2, Pospisil M. (G), Gridin M. (A), Nemec S. (A2)
Preview
A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 13th and 4th in the Promotion - NHL Playoffs).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Calgary won 0.
Both teams look competitive and well-prepared heading into this encounter.
Calgary could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Toronto holding a narrow advantage.
Confirmed absences for Calgary: Backlund M.
(Upper-Body Injury)
Honzek S.
(Lower-Body Injury)
Huberdeau J.
(Hip Injury).
Confirmed absences for Toronto: Blankenburg N.
(Upper-Body Injury)
Domi M.
(Back Injury)
Merzlikins E.
(Shoulder Injury)
Rifai M.
(Lower-Body Injury)
Tanev C.
(Upper-Body Injury)
Tavares J.
(Lower-Body Injury)
Wood M.
(Injury).
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Calgary has recorded 5 wins, 0 draws, and 15 losses, with a goal aggregate of 51:66 (averaging 2.6:3.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Calgary against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with 24:34 goals (averaging 2.7:3.8 per game).
Outrights of NHL for now
Toronto Maple Leafs: 1.96% Calgary Flames: 0.21%
Last Results with these Odds
Calgary Flames - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 36.51%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.
Toronto Maple Leafs - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 41.13%, but this team recently wins 35% of matches with these odds.
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Cooley D. (G) 
Bobrovsky S. (G) 
Nemec S. 
Raddysh D. 
Backlund M. 
Sharangovich Y. 
Klapka A. 
Blueger T. 
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