Match Info

VHL

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Ledovy Dvorets Sporta (Naberezhnye Chelny)


	Chelny		Yuzhny Ural Orsk

	1	X	2
	2.66	3.76	2.33
	2.65	3.82	2.31	Watch
	2.5	3.66	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (3.12)	3.75 ↓ (3.9)	2.26 ↑ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelny
35.1%

Draw
24.4%

Yuzhny Ural Orsk
40.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

24%

45.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

24.5%

46.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelny has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chelny's performance.

Yuzhny Ural Orsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Yuzhny Ural Orsk might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelny than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chelny that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yuzhny Ural Orsk than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Yuzhny Ural Orsk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Chelny - Yuzhny Ural Orsk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
60. Sartakov V. (G)	32. Kudryavtsev S. (G)
5. Davydov D.	78. Beshkorov K.
72. Kolmagorov K. (A)	18. Zotov F.
59. Anufriev I.	98. Kuimov Y.
68. Silayev I. (C)	15. Putilov A.
29. Manukyan A.	77. Zakharov I.
Line 2
44. Vinogradov A.	88. Krylov I. (A)
50. Motygullin B. (A)	27. Ostrovsky S.
10. Ustimkin M.	17. Kovalchuk P. (A)
94. Sherstobitov D.	91. Suslov K. (C)
22. Minnekhanov B.	72. Rvachev V.
Line 3
19. Zakharov N.	92. Gatiyatulin I.
62. Naumov G.	29. Papst R.
25. Rakhcheev I.	10. Shindyaev K.
69. Redkov A.	96. Kurkin M.
97. Smirnov N.	79. Timashev I.
Line 4
63. Biktashev S.	8. Vikulin K.
86. Minnekhanov T.	23. Yefimov I.
26. Tarasov A.	28. Samokhvalov M.
9. Nasyrov M.
Substitutes
80. Gorokhov N. (G)	16. Rubtsov S.
	35. Snytko A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
08:27, 0 - 1, Zakharov I. (G), Papst R. (A), Gatiyatulin I. (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 1)
00:40, 1 - 1, Ustimkin M. (G), Minnekhanov B. (A), Vinogradov A. (A2)
06:37, 2 - 1, Ustimkin M. (G), Minnekhanov B. (A),
19:59, 2 - 2, Suslov K. (G), Zotov F. (A), Rvachev V. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 1)
12:51, 3 - 2, Silayev I. (G), Manukyan A. (A), Kolmagorov K. (A2)
19:04, 3 - 3, Rvachev V. (G), Zakharov I. (A),
Overtime (0 - 1)
04:15, 3 - 4, Kurkin M. (G),

Preview

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelny won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:15. (average 1.4:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Chelny won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:6. (average 1.5:3).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
7	Orsk	10	5	2	3	0	33:18	17

Last Results with these Odds

Chelny - the odds 3.12 are the expected chance of winning is 30.04%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Yuzhny Ural Orsk - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 45.94%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Chelny
VHL
23.02.26	Chelny - Magnitka Magnitogorsk	1:3 ✺
21.02.26	Chelny - Chelmet	1:2 ✺
19.02.26	Chelny - Gornyak-UGMK	3:4 ✺
15.02.26	Olympia Kirovo-Chepetsk - Chelny	2:5 ✺
13.02.26	Molot Perm - Chelny	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLLWL
- Yuzhny Ural Orsk
VHL
23.02.26	Neftyanik Almetyevsk - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	3:4 ✺
21.02.26	CSK VVS Samara - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	4:0 ✺
19.02.26	Bars Kazan - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	4:1 ✺
13.02.26	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Dinamo St. Petersburg	0:3 ✺
11.02.26	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - SKA-VMF	2:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

VHL
27.09.25	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Chelny	2:0
15.12.24	Chelny - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	2:0
05.12.24	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Chelny	2:0
14.02.24	Chelny - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	1:6
06.09.23	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Chelny	5:4 OT

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