Match Info

NHL

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: American Airlines Center (Dallas, TX)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Sub, MTV Urheilu 2, Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Vinter
Germany	Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Slovakia	Voyo
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Vinter
Ukraine	Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN+, Victory+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Dallas Stars		Tampa Bay Lightning

	1	X	2
	2.7	4	2.25	Watch
	2.55	4.19	2.37
	2.6	4.18	2.33	Watch
	2.63	4	2.38
	2.67	4.21	2.39
	2.5	4.25	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.52)	4.14 ↓ (4.16)	2.35 ↓ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dallas Stars
36.5%

Draw
23%

Tampa Bay Lightning
40.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

23.3%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

21.4%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dallas Stars has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Tampa Bay Lightning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dallas Stars than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	40%	26.7%

Dallas Stars - Tampa Bay Lightning Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Dallas will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Tampa Bay will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.2% – 64.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Dallas (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 6.5, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
29. Oettinger J. (G)	88. Vasilevski A. (G)
4. Heiskanen M. (A)	43. Raddysh D.
23. Lindell E. (A)	90. Moser J.J.
96. Rantanen M.	86. Kucherov N. (A)
53. Johnston W.	71. Cirelli A. (A)
18. Steel S.	38. Hagel B.
Line 2
28. Petrovic A.	81. Cernak E.
55. Harley T.	51. D'Astous C.
95. Duchene M.	59. Guentzel J. (A)
24. Hintz R. (A)	20. Paul N.
21. Robertson J.	93. Goncalves G.
Line 3
5. Lundkvist N.	24. Crozier M.
20. Capobianco K.	67. Carlile D.
22. Bourque M.	29. Holmberg P.
49. Hryckowian J.	37. Gourde Y.
10. Back O.	28. Girgensons Z.
Line 4
15. Blackwell C.	17. James D.
12. Faksa R.	62. Finley J.
14. Benn Ja. (C)	22. Bjorkstrand O.
Substitutes
1. DeSmith C. (G)	31. Johansson J. (G)
Coaches
. Gulutzan G.	. Cooper J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
04:00, 1 - 0, Back O. (G), Lundkvist N. (A), Bourque M. (A2)
05:24, Cernak E. (2 min),
08:04, 1 - 1, James D. (G), Guentzel J. (A), D'Astous C. (A2)
18:04, Hryckowian J. (2 min),
18:04, Carlile D. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 2)
06:16, Robertson J. (2 min),
11:04, 1 - 2, Hagel B. (G), Kucherov N. (A), Raddysh D. (A2)
14:20, Cernak E. (2 min),
18:50, 1 - 3, Guentzel J. (G), James D. (A), Bjorkstrand O. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 1)
07:26, Blackwell C. (2 min),
17:59, 1 - 4, Holmberg P. (G), Gourde Y. (A),

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dallas won 2.

Recent performances by Dallas have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tampa Bay is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Dallas: Bichsel L. (Lower-Body Injury) Heiskanen M. (Personal Reasons) Seguin T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Tampa Bay: Hedman V. (Elbow Injury) Lilleberg E. (Injury) Point B. (Lower-Body Injury) Sabourin S. (Head Injury)

There are questionable in Tampa Bay: McDonagh R. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dallas won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 44:59. (average 2.2:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Dallas won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:25. (average 2.4:2.5).

Outrights of NHL for now

Tampa Bay Lightning: 6.22% Dallas Stars: 4.52%

Last Results with these Odds

Tampa Bay Lightning - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 38.19%, but this team recently wins 53% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dallas Stars
NHL
15.01.26	Utah Mammoth - Dallas Stars	2:1 ✺
13.01.26	Anaheim Ducks - Dallas Stars	3:1 ✺
12.01.26	Los Angeles Kings - Dallas Stars	1:3 ✺
10.01.26	San Jose Sharks - Dallas Stars	5:4 OT ✺
07.01.26	Washington Capitals - Dallas Stars	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLWLW
- Tampa Bay Lightning
NHL
16.01.26	St. Louis Blues - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:2 penalties ✺
13.01.26	Pittsburgh Penguins - Tampa Bay Lightning	1:2 penalties ✺
12.01.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Tampa Bay Lightning	1:5 ✺
10.01.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:7 ✺
06.01.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Colorado Avalanche	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
30.10.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Dallas Stars	2:1 OT
20.03.25	Dallas Stars - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:3 penalties
23.11.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - Dallas Stars	2:4
04.12.23	Tampa Bay Lightning - Dallas Stars	4:0
02.12.23	Dallas Stars - Tampa Bay Lightning	8:1
11.02.23	Dallas Stars - Tampa Bay Lightning	1:3
15.11.22	Tampa Bay Lightning - Dallas Stars	5:4 OT

Dallas Stars - Tampa Bay Lightning: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide