Match Info

National League - Round 40

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Location: OYM Hall (Zug)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Switzerland	MySports, MySports


	EV Zug		Ajoie

	1	X	2
	1.44	5.5	5.25	Watch
	1.45	5.2	5.4
	1.44	5.04	5.93	Watch
	1.36	4.8	5.5
	1.59	4.81	4.81	Watch
	1.34	5.25	5.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.34)	5.1 ↓ (5.52)	5.44 ↓ (6.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

EV Zug
64.7%

Draw
18.2%

Ajoie
17.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.6%

16.9%

13.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

14.3%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

EV Zug has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Ajoie has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for EV Zug than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with EV Zug that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajoie than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

EV Zug - Ajoie Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. EV Zug will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Ajoie will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ajoie will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:1

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Genoni L. (G)	40. Ciaccio D. (G)
66. Sklenicka D.	15. Christe G.
37. Riva E.	3. Honka A.
73. Kunzle M.	4. Hazen J.
43. Kovar J. (C)	8. Devos P.
40. Wingerli A.	74. Nattinen J.
Line 2
18. Schlumpf D.	2. Pilet V.
42. Geisser T.	33. Friman N.
15. Hofmann G.	78. Sopa K.
90. Tatar T.	19. Wick J.
81. Kubalik D.	71. Mottet K.
Line 3
14. Stadler L.	90. Fischer J. (C)
6. Geisser M.	91. Berthoud Y.
96. Vozenilek D.	87. Pedretti M.
88. Senteler S.	70. Romanenghi M.
68. Herzog F.	95. Bozon K.
Line 4
7. Moret D.	37. Nussbaumer A.
95. Lindemann C. S.	20. Cormier C.
61. Leuenberger S.	73. Cavalleri C.
86. Antenen R. N.	14. Veckaktins E.
Substitutes
22. Eggenberger N.	42. Haller F. (G)
1. Wolf T. (G)	18. Pouilly B.
Coaches
. Liniger M.	. Ireland G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
08:42, 1 - 0, Tatar T. (G), Kubalik D. (A),
2nd Period (1 - 3)
00:50, 1 - 1, Nattinen J. (G),
08:41, Antenen R. N. (2 min),
13:54, Fischer J. (2 min),
16:08, 1 - 2, Honka A. (G), Fischer J. (A),
17:37, 2 - 2, Hofmann G. (G), Senteler S. (A),
19:59, 2 - 3, Nattinen J. (G), Honka A. (A), Devos P. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 1)
07:43, Schlumpf D. (2 min),
16:19, Senteler S. (2 min),
16:53, 2 - 4, Honka A. (G), Nattinen J. (A),

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 14 in the zone National League (Play Out: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, EV Zug won 3.

EV Zug is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ajoie's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

EV Zug may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ajoie has had a series of home games.

In this match, EV Zug is the clear favorite.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, EV Zug won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 82:30. (average 4.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, EV Zug won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 49:16. (average 5.4:1.8).

Outrights of Swiss National League Hockey for now

Zug: 7.56% Ajoie: 0.82%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
5	Ajoie	11	2	4	2	3	35:38	16
12	Zug	6	3	0	1	2	22:14	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EV Zug
Swiss National League Hockey
14.01.26	EV Zug - Lugano	2:3 ✺
Champions League Ice Hockey
13.01.26	EV Zug - Luleå	2:3 ✺
Swiss National League Hockey
10.01.26	EV Zug - ZSC Lions	2:3 OT ✺
08.01.26	Fribourg-Gottéron - EV Zug	3:2 penalties ✺
06.01.26	Ambrì-Piotta - EV Zug	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- HC Ajoie
Swiss National League Hockey
14.01.26	Ajoie - SCL Tigers	2:1 penalties ✺
09.01.26	Ajoie - Biel	1:2 ✺
06.01.26	Ajoie - ZSC Lions	3:5 ✺
03.01.26	Rapperswil-Jona Lakers - Ajoie	2:1 OT ✺
02.01.26	Ajoie - Bern	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Swiss National League Hockey
29.11.25	Ajoie - EV Zug	3:2 penalties
23.10.25	EV Zug - Ajoie	8:3
04.10.25	Ajoie - EV Zug	1:3
01.02.25	Ajoie - EV Zug	2:1
21.12.24	EV Zug - Ajoie	4:0
16.10.24	EV Zug - Ajoie	7:1
27.09.24	Ajoie - EV Zug	1:3

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