Match Info

VHL

Date: 10 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Ledovaya Arena A. Kozitsyna (Verkhnyaya Pyshma)


	Gornyak-UGMK		Chelmet

	1	X	2
	2.47	3.39	2.28
	2.40	3.30	2.20
	2.27	4.04	2.63	Watch
	2.36	3.90	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (2.45)	3.66 ↓ (3.96)	2.39 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gornyak-UGMK
37.8%

Draw
24.6%

Chelmet
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

23.6%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

25.3%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gornyak-UGMK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Chelmet has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gornyak-UGMK than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelmet than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Gornyak UGMK - Chelmet Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Gornyak-UGMK will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gornyak-UGMK (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
50. Shchemerov A. (G)	30. Utenkov D. (G)
26. Ishimnikov N.	26. Kovalenko A.
8. Karpovich D.	5. Borodkin A. (A)
91. Makeyev A. (C)	29. Mokin M. (A)
13. Zaytsev O. (A)	57. Telegin N.
52. Ovchinnikov I. (A)	37. Udot A.
Line 2
62. Shchuchinov A.	28. Potapov F.
72. Trofimov Y.	77. Rodionov M.
70. Alexeyev Y.	14. Zinovyev I. (C)
14. Makhrin M.	73. Mits Z.
44. Lukhovskoy N.	97. Matyushin A.
Line 3
. Kaygorodov	21. Pronichkin A.
28. Sitnikov V.	18. Mikanovich D.
71. Velikov M.	46. Shaveko V.
27. Epishev I.	90. Klimontov K.
96. Miller N.	34. Gusmanov F.
Line 4
23. Gamzakov M.	87. Anufriyenko N.
22. Molodtsov D.	80. Semenikhin M.
63. Isayev D.	50. Yekimov N.
18. Sushchev V.	67. Shchekoldin K.
32. Borisov S.	44. Kozhevnikov R.
Substitutes
35. Tulinov N. (G)	60. Sherstnev S. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (4 - 0)
02:06, 1 - 0, Isayev D. (G), Molodtsov D. (A), Borisov S. (A2)
08:42, 2 - 0, Borisov S. (G), Miller N. (A), Makeyev A. (A2)
13:20, 3 - 0, Alexeyev Y. (G), Isayev D. (A), Makhrin M. (A2)
19:56, 4 - 0, Ovchinnikov I. (G), Borisov S. (A), Zaytsev O. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
06:01, 5 - 0, Borisov S. (G), Sushchev V. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gornyak-UGMK won 3.

Recent performances by Gornyak-UGMK have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Chelmet is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Chelmet may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

We predict that Gornyak-UGMK will win today's game, with odds of 2.61.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gornyak-UGMK won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 44:48. (average 2.2:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Gornyak-UGMK won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:21. (average 1.9:2.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
27	Chelmet Chelyabinsk	10	2	1	2	5	20:36	8

Last Results with these Odds

Gornyak-UGMK - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 38.07%, but this team recently wins 15% of matches with these odds.

Chelmet - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.38%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gornyak-UGMK
VHL
06.09.26	Magnitka Magnitogorsk - Gornyak-UGMK	0:1 OT ✺
04.09.26	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Gornyak-UGMK	3:4 penalties ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
28.08.26	Gornyak-UGMK - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	2:5 ✺
27.08.26	Dinamo St. Petersburg - Gornyak-UGMK	3:4 OT ✺
26.08.26	Toros Neftekamsk - Gornyak-UGMK	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWLWL
- HC Chelmet
VHL
08.09.26	Magnitka Magnitogorsk - Chelmet	5:0 ✺
06.09.26	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Chelmet	1:2 penalties ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
27.08.26	Rubin Tyumen - Chelmet	3:2 AET ✺
26.08.26	Chelmet - Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk	4:5 ✺
25.08.26	Zauralie Kurgan - Chelmet	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

VHL
05.12.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Chelmet	1:4
02.09.25	Chelmet - Gornyak-UGMK	2:5
26.09.24	Chelmet - Gornyak-UGMK	4:5 penalties
03.09.24	Gornyak-UGMK - Chelmet	5:4
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
08.08.24	Chelmet - Gornyak-UGMK	4:3
VHL
24.12.23	Chelmet - Gornyak-UGMK	3:2
18.10.23	Gornyak-UGMK - Chelmet	1:3

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