Match Info

VHL

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: Yubileiny (Orsk)


	Yuzhny Ural Orsk		Gornyak-UGMK

	1	X	2
	2.79	3.63	2.29
	2.7	3.55	2.2
	2.7	3.88	2.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.23)	3.69 ↓ (4.05)	2.26 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yuzhny Ural Orsk
33.9%

Draw
25.1%

Gornyak-UGMK
41%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

23.2%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

24.3%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yuzhny Ural Orsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Yuzhny Ural Orsk's form might have worsened.

Gornyak-UGMK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gornyak-UGMK's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yuzhny Ural Orsk than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Yuzhny Ural Orsk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gornyak-UGMK than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Gornyak UGMK Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Yuzhny Ural will win (votes: 1 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Yuzhny Ural (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
45. Nikitin V. (G)	50. Zinaddin L. (G)
15. Puchkov Y.	8. Karpovich D.
88. Safonov I.	26. Ishimnikov N.
19. Suslov K.	13. Zaytsev O.
82. Nizovkin M.	52. Ovchinnikov I.
85. Manin Y.	91. Makeyev A.
Line 2
52. Vasin I.	62. Shchuchinov A.
96. Lineitsev D.	72. Trofimov Y.
7. Gimatov E.	14. Makhrin M.
74. Lapshin I.	44. Lukhovskoy N.
76. Boychuk D.	70. Aksenov E.
Line 3
18. Alexeyev D.	28. Sitnikov V.
65. Zotov F.	90. Nekrasov N.
9. Ugolnikov I.	27. Epischev I.
10. Shindyaev K.	80. Demidovich V.
13. Bryntsev M.	96. Miller N.
Line 4
78. Beshkorov K.	22. Molodtsov D.
47. Bulatov D.	23. Gamzakov M.
71. Beizak S.	18. Sushchev V.
79. Timashev I.	32. Borisov S.
	63. Isayev D.
Substitutes
91. Shepherd V.	35. Tulinov N. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 2)
07:26, 0 - 1, Sushchev V. (G), Borisov S. (A), Isayev D. (A2)
09:32, 0 - 2, Sushchev V. (G), Miller N. (A),
2nd Period (2 - 1)
04:55, 1 - 2, Manin Y. (G), Vasin I. (A), Suslov K. (A2)
05:30, 1 - 3, Ishimnikov N. (G), Karpovich D. (A),
08:59, 2 - 3, Lapshin I. (G), Safonov I. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
09:37, 3 - 3, Shindyaev K. (G), Suslov K. (A), Puchkov Y. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (1 - 2)
1, Gimatov E. (Penalty Shot),
1, Yepishchev I. (Penalty Shot),
2, Suslov K. (Penalty Shot),
2, Miller N. (Penalty Shot),
3, Nizovkin M. (Penalty Shot),
3, Aksenov E. (Penalty Shot),
4, Safonov I. (Penalty Shot),
4, Zaytsev O. (Penalty Shot),
5, Ugolnikov I. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Yuzhny Ural won 2.

Yuzhny Ural is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Gornyak-UGMK has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Yuzhny Ural may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Yuzhny Ural has had a series of home games.

Recently, Gornyak-UGMK has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

We predict that Yuzhny Ural will win today's game, with odds of 2.78.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Yuzhny Ural won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 47:58. (average 2.4:2.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Yuzhny Ural won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 23:29. (average 2.3:2.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
7	Orsk	11	5	2	3	1	33:21	17

Last Results with these Odds

Yuzhny Ural Orsk - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 42.08%, but this team recently wins 21% of matches with these odds.

Gornyak-UGMK - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.75%, but this team recently wins 15% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yuzhny Ural Orsk
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
28.08.26	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - CSK VVS Samara	4:1 ✺
27.08.26	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Kristall Saratov	3:1 ✺
26.08.26	Dizel Penza - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	3:2 penalties ✺
09.08.26	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - AKM	4:3 AET ✺
08.08.26	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Aktobe	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWLWW
- Gornyak-UGMK
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
28.08.26	Gornyak-UGMK - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	2:5 ✺
27.08.26	Dinamo St. Petersburg - Gornyak-UGMK	3:4 OT ✺
26.08.26	Toros Neftekamsk - Gornyak-UGMK	6:3 ✺
25.08.26	Omskie Krylia - Gornyak-UGMK	2:3 OT ✺
13.08.26	SKA-VMF - Gornyak-UGMK	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

VHL
14.12.25	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Gornyak-UGMK	3:2
03.12.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	5:2
01.03.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	1:0
24.09.24	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Gornyak-UGMK	5:1
26.12.23	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Gornyak-UGMK	3:4 OT
16.10.23	Gornyak-UGMK - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	3:2 OT
16.12.22	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Gornyak-UGMK	4:3

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