Match Info

VHL

Date: 1 December 2025, Monday

Location: Ledovaya Arena A. Kozitsyna (Verkhnyaya Pyshma)


	Gornyak-UGMK		Magnitka Magnitogorsk

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.73	3.08
	2.03	3.94	3.12	Watch
	2.05	3.85	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.35)	3.84 ↑ (3.78)	3.13 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gornyak-UGMK
45.9%

Draw
24.3%

Magnitka Magnitogorsk
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

24.7%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

23.7%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gornyak-UGMK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gornyak-UGMK's performance.

Magnitka Magnitogorsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Magnitka Magnitogorsk might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gornyak-UGMK than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Magnitka Magnitogorsk than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Gornyak UGMK - Magnitka Magnitogorsk Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Magnitka (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Novosyolov N. (G)	23. Amirbekov J. (G)
95. Dumchenko N.	21. Yegorov A.
4. Bolshakov M.	7. Timashov N. (A)
29. Khremkin K.	38. Mikhnin D.
10. Filyayev V.	15. Grass M.
80. Demidovich V.	98. Fursa A.
Line 2
85. Zhuravlyov Y.	32. Shetle E.
72. Trofimov Y.	4. Zhloba N. (C)
7. Gordin A.	31. Mirzabalayev A.
13. Zaytsev O. (C)	18. Tyutnev P.
56. Ovchinnikov I. (A)	9. Boltanov A. (A)
Line 3
90. Nekrasov N.	63. Vaulin M.
92. Valitov D. (A)	94. Romanov R.
70. Alexeyev Y.	95. Osipovich B.
14. Makhrin M.	97. Galenyuk M.
44. Lukhovskoy N.	77. Kuzyakin A.
Line 4
26. Ishimnikov N.	14. Medvedev S.
83. Karpovich D.	99. Kovgorenya A.
76. Kashtanov A.	43. Penzin Y.
67. Gashilov L.	74. Zhugin V.
18. Sushchev V.
Substitutes
20. Obvintsev T. (G)	20. Kramzin Y. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
10:51, 1 - 0, Khremkin K. (G), Demidovich V. (A), Bolshakov M. (A2)
12:57, 1 - 1, Kovgorenya A. (G), Timashov N. (A), Grass M. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
3rd Period (3 - 1)
05:33, 1 - 2, Osipovich B. (G),
11:28, 2 - 2, Kashtanov A. (G), Valitov D. (A), Nekrasov N. (A2)
15:21, 3 - 2, Kashtanov A. (G), Ovchinnikov I. (A),
19:54, 4 - 2, Alexeyev Y. (G),

Preview

Gornyak-UGMK is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Magnitka is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Magnitka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Magnitka has had a series of away games.

Gornyak-UGMK will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Gornyak-UGMK will win today's game, with odds of 2.04.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Gornyak-UGMK won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:9. (average 2.7:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Gornyak-UGMK won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:7. (average 2.5:3.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Gornyak-UGMK - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 39.77%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gornyak-UGMK
VHL
23.11.25	Zvezda Moscow - Gornyak-UGMK	2:3 penalties ✺
21.11.25	Khimik - Gornyak-UGMK	4:5 OT ✺
19.11.25	Torpedo-Gorky - Gornyak-UGMK	4:5 penalties ✺
13.11.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Omskie Krylia	1:2 OT ✺
11.11.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Zauralie Kurgan	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WWWLW
- Magnitka Magnitogorsk
VHL
29.11.25	Chelmet - Magnitka Magnitogorsk	2:1 ✺
27.11.25	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Magnitka Magnitogorsk	2:5 ✺
18.11.25	Zvezda Moscow - Magnitka Magnitogorsk	4:1 ✺
16.11.25	Khimik - Magnitka Magnitogorsk	4:2 ✺
14.11.25	Torpedo-Gorky - Magnitka Magnitogorsk	5:4 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly Ice Hockey
21.08.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Magnitka Magnitogorsk	2:5
VHL
03.03.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Magnitka Magnitogorsk	3:2 penalties
22.09.24	Magnitka Magnitogorsk - Gornyak-UGMK	2:3 penalties

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