Match Info

VHL

Date: 11 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: Ledovaya Arena A. Kozitsyna (Verkhnyaya Pyshma)


	Gornyak-UGMK		Zauralie Kurgan

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.89	3.39
	1.73	4.56	3.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (2.13)	4.23 ↑ (4)	3.55 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gornyak-UGMK
51.8%

Draw
22%

Zauralie Kurgan
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

23.4%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

24.1%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gornyak-UGMK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gornyak-UGMK's performance.

Zauralie Kurgan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Zauralie Kurgan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gornyak-UGMK than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gornyak-UGMK that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zauralie Kurgan than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Zauralie Kurgan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Gornyak UGMK - Zauralie Kurgan Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Novosyolov N. (G)	20. Vinogradov Z. (G)
91. Malorosiyanov D.	3. Shikun A.
72. Trofimov Y.	79. Isayev I. (C)
7. Gordin A.	13. Ugolnikov A.
13. Zaytsev O. (C)	93. Kozlov I.
80. Demidovich V.	17. Lipanov A.
Line 2
23. Gamzakov M.	67. Vasilyev K.
92. Valitov D. (A)	77. Belyakov F. (A)
56. Ovchinnikov I. (A)	11. Ryzhov K.
14. Makhrin M.	34. Tagirov K.
44. Lukhovskoy N.	24. Smirnov N.
Line 3
16. Myslyayev S.	61. Kozhemyakin G.
3. Zubarev A.	16. Avvakumov I.
87. Loza I.	99. Kolesnikov S.
18. Sushchev V.	78. Komaristy A. (A)
59. Razdyakonov V.	87. Nizovtsev S.
Line 4
4. Bolshakov M.	50. Pozhidaev A.
95. Dumchenko N.	82. Shiryayev I.
29. Khremkin K.	98. Govorkov R.
10. Filyayev V.	7. Baldayev D.
32. Borisov S.
Substitutes
20. Obvintsev T. (G)	60. Gorbunov I. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 0)
14:14, 1 - 0, Makhrin M. (G), Gamzakov M. (A), Valitov D. (A2)
17:13, 2 - 0, Borisov S. (G), Myslyayev S. (A), Filyayev V. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 2)
02:56, 2 - 1, Ugolnikov A. (G), Govorkov R. (A), Avvakumov I. (A2)
15:38, 2 - 2, Tagirov K. (G), Baldayev D. (A), Pozhidaev A. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 1)
01:08, 3 - 2, Ovchinnikov I. (G), Lukhovskoy N. (A),
02:36, 4 - 2, Sushchev V. (G), Filyayev V. (A), Lukhovskoy N. (A2)
11:53, 4 - 3, Avvakumov I. (G), Govorkov R. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gornyak-UGMK won 4.

In recent matches, Gornyak-UGMK has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Zauralie is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Zauralie may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Gornyak-UGMK will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gornyak-UGMK won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 58:39. (average 2.9:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Gornyak-UGMK won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 24:13. (average 3:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Gornyak-UGMK - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 44.01%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gornyak-UGMK
VHL
09.11.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Rubin Tyumen	4:1 ✺
07.11.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk	2:3 ✺
02.11.25	Buran Voronezh - Gornyak-UGMK	2:0 ✺
31.10.25	Rostov - Gornyak-UGMK	3:4 ✺
29.10.25	Tambov - Gornyak-UGMK	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLLWW
- Zauralie Kurgan
VHL
09.11.25	Chelmet - Zauralie Kurgan	3:4 OT ✺
07.11.25	Magnitka Magnitogorsk - Zauralie Kurgan	3:2 penalties ✺
05.11.25	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Zauralie Kurgan	1:3 ✺
31.10.25	Zauralie Kurgan - Torpedo-Gorky	4:1 ✺
29.10.25	Zauralie Kurgan - Khimik	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

VHL
28.01.25	Zauralie Kurgan - Gornyak-UGMK	1:2
23.10.24	Gornyak-UGMK - Zauralie Kurgan	6:1
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
17.08.24	Zauralie Kurgan - Gornyak-UGMK	3:4 penalties
09.08.24	Zauralie Kurgan - Gornyak-UGMK	0:2
VHL
28.12.23	Zauralie Kurgan - Gornyak-UGMK	2:1
03.09.23	Gornyak-UGMK - Zauralie Kurgan	1:2
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
09.08.23	Zauralie Kurgan - Gornyak-UGMK	2:4

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