Match Info

Liiga

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Pohjantahti-Areena (Hämeenlinna)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	HPK		Ässät

	1	X	2
	2.10	4.00	2.75
	2.10	4.00	2.85
	2.12	3.90	2.90	Watch
	2.27	3.54	2.88
	2.07	3.81	3.1	Watch
	2.20	3.50	2.85
	2.19	4.00	2.81	Watch
	2.16	3.80	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.24)	3.82 ↓ (4.18)	2.87 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HPK
43.2%

Draw
24.3%

Ässät
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

22.3%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

24%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Ässät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HPK than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ässät than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

HPK - Ässät Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Ässät will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Saarinen K. (G)	33. Taponen R. (G)
43. Kukkonen M. (A)	79. Nikkila P. (A)
4. Jokirinne V.	61. Jurgens C.
81. Oden J.	48. Klingberg C. (A)
12. Paivarinta S. (A)	10. Hillis C.
94. Hakulinen A. (C)	34. Doucet A.
Line 2
7. Pyke G.	37. Maatta R. (C)
39. Nychuk C.	3. Anttalainen A.
11. de Jong E.	47. Pinard S.
29. MacEachern C.	19. Juhola P.
95. Ranford B.	36. Bjorkqvist K.
Line 3
5. Andzans A.	55. Riihinen P.
38. Wallenius E.	80. Nurmi P.
28. Kukuca A.	8. Olofsson J.
15. Korhonen O.	14. Sebok B.
10. Vesterinen R.	63. Kostilainen S.
Line 4
16. Gabrielsson H.	7. Pulli J.
25. Huttunen H.	26. Kim A.
64. Kainulainen H.	72. Ojantakanen K.
44. Kopiloff O.	18. Ylitalo O.
Substitutes
8. Alitalo V.	30. Bednar J. (G)
65. Crespin J. (G)	44. Skinnari A.
Coaches
. Manner M.	. Pikkarainen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 1)
04:40, Riihinen P. (2 min),
05:06, 1 - 0, Hakulinen A. (G), Paivarinta S. (A), Nychuk C. (A2)
05:39, 2 - 0, Korhonen O. (G), Vesterinen R. (A),
15:09, 2 - 1, Pinard S. (G),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
03:50, Hillis C. (2 min),
06:54, 2 - 2, Kostilainen S. (G), Juhola P. (A), Pinard S. (A2)
08:49, 3 - 2, de Jong E. (G), MacEachern C. (A), Ranford B. (A2)
11:52, Klingberg C. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 2)
06:20, 4 - 2, Hakulinen A. (G), Paivarinta S. (A),
11:06, Kostilainen S. (2 min),
11:06, Andzans A. (2 min),
14:40, Gabrielsson H. (2 min),
14:40, Kainulainen H. (2 min),
15:26, 4 - 3, Doucet A. (G), Pinard S. (A), Hillis C. (A2)
17:33, 4 - 4, Pinard S. (G), Doucet A. (A), Nurmi P. (A2)
Overtime (1 - 0)
03:53, 5 - 4, Kukkonen M. (G), Paivarinta S. (A), Hakulinen A. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 2.

HPK is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Ässät is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

HPK could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Ässät has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Our forecast points to a victory for Ässät in today's match, at odds of 2.82.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, HPK has recorded 7 wins, 1 draw, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 38:45 (averaging 1.9:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for HPK against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 19:12 goals (averaging 2.4:1.5 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Hameenlinna: 2.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
3	Assat	12	6	1	2	3	30:27	22
12	Hameenlinna	11	3	3	0	5	23:32	15

Last Results with these Odds

HPK - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.65%, but this team recently wins 53% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HPK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
22.09.26	HPK - Lukko	1:3 ✺
19.09.26	HPK - TPS	3:1 ✺
15.09.26	KalPa - HPK	7:0 ✺
08.09.26	HPK - Ilves	0:4 ✺
04.09.26	HIFK - HPK	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLLL
- Ässät hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
25.09.26	Ässät - SaiPa	0:5 ✺
23.09.26	SaiPa - Ässät	1:2 penalties ✺
19.09.26	Ässät - Kiekko-Espoo	2:1 ✺
15.09.26	Ässät - Vaasan Sport	5:1 ✺
09.09.26	Ässät - Jokerit	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly Ice Hockey
20.08.26	HPK - Ässät	3:0
12.08.26	Ässät - HPK	3:1
Finnish Pitsiturnaus
07.08.26	Ässät - HPK	0:0
Finnish SM-liiga
07.02.26	HPK - Ässät	3:1
27.12.25	Ässät - HPK	4:3 OT
03.10.25	HPK - Ässät	2:4
12.09.25	Ässät - HPK	4:1

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