Match Info

Liiga

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Pohjantahti-Areena (Hämeenlinna)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	HPK		TPS

	1	X	2
	2.25	4	2.55
	2.20	3.90	2.70
	2.3	3.85	2.85	Watch
	2.16	4.12	2.74
	2.25	4	2.7	Watch
	2.13	4.05	2.7
	2.22	4.05	2.74	Watch
	2.21	3.85	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.24)	3.98 ↑ (3.72)	2.71 ↓ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HPK
42.1%

Draw
23.5%

TPS
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

24.9%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

28.6%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HPK than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for HPK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TPS than the current prediction. (-5%)

HPK - TPS Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Saarinen K. (G)	30. Ruusu M. (G)
43. Kukkonen M. (A)	38. Landen A.
39. Nychuk C.	61. Binner A.
81. Oden J.	49. Wernblom L.
12. Paivarinta S. (A)	97. Haudum L.
94. Hakulinen A. (C)	22. Bryggman L. (A)
Line 2
7. Pyke G.	2. Tuhkala A.
4. Jokirinne V.	40. Lehtonen S.
11. de Jong E.	25. Ikonen Jo.
29. MacEachern C.	13. Paajanen O. (C)
95. Ranford B.	86. Yliniemi S.
Line 3
5. Andzans A.	6. Rafkin R. (A)
38. Wallenius E.	44. Lindbohm P.
28. Kukuca A.	9. Koivu A.
15. Korhonen O.	21. Maatta J.
10. Vesterinen R.	24. Virtanen J.
Line 4
16. Gabrielsson H.	4. Chicoine G.
25. Huttunen H.	84. Pikkarainen K.
64. Kainulainen H.	47. Kuru H.
8. Alitalo V.	57. Munkki V.
Substitutes
65. Crespin J. (G)	36. Makiniemi E. (G)
44. Kopiloff O.	10. Ylitalo N.
Coaches
. Manner M.	. Soderholm T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
00:59, Binner A. (2 min),
03:19, Bryggman L. (2 min),
05:27, 1 - 0, Vesterinen R. (G), Kainulainen H. (A), Kukkonen M. (A2)
10:04, Hakulinen A. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
01:52, Jokirinne V. (2 min),
03:06, Pyke G. (2 min),
06:37, Virtanen J. (2 min),
14:36, Pikkarainen K. (2 min),
3rd Period (2 - 1)
02:43, 1 - 1, Paajanen O. (G), Landen A. (A),
04:32, 2 - 1, Kukkonen M. (G), MacEachern C. (A), Ranford B. (A2)
13:23, Wallenius E. (5 min),
18:47, 3 - 1, Jokirinne V. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 1.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

TPS may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, TPS has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, HPK has recorded 5 wins, 0 draws, and 15 losses, with a goal aggregate of 38:60 (averaging 1.9:3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for HPK against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with 16:28 goals (averaging 1.6:2.8 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

TPS Turku: 3.47% Hameenlinna: 2.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
11	TPS Turku	10	5	0	0	5	26:21	15
12	Hameenlinna	11	3	3	0	5	23:32	15

Last Results with these Odds

HPK - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.29%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

TPS - the odds 2.74 are the expected chance of winning is 33.81%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HPK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
15.09.26	KalPa - HPK	7:0 ✺
08.09.26	HPK - Ilves	0:4 ✺
04.09.26	HIFK - HPK	5:3 ✺
01.09.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - HPK	1:4 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
27.08.26	HPK - Lukko	4:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLLWW
- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
17.09.26	TPS - Tappara	4:0 ✺
15.09.26	TPS - Mikkelin Jukurit	1:4 ✺
09.09.26	Vaasan Sport - TPS	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	TPS - HIFK	5:1 ✺
01.09.26	TPS - KooKoo	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
10.02.26	TPS - HPK	3:1
16.01.26	HPK - TPS	3:1
29.10.25	TPS - HPK	1:0
09.09.25	HPK - TPS	2:3 penalties
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
16.08.25	TPS - HPK	2:0
Finnish SM-liiga
17.01.25	HPK - TPS	1:5
28.12.24	TPS - HPK	4:2

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