Match Info

Liiga

Date: 9 January 2026, Friday

Location: Pohjantahti-Areena (Hämeenlinna)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	HPK		Kiekko-Espoo

	1	X	2
	2.25	4.2	2.6
	2.17	3.97	2.95
	2.24	4.18	2.65	Watch
	2.15	3.75	2.6
	2.18	4.05	2.8	Watch
	2.1	4	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.47)	4.03 ↑ (3.68)	2.77 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HPK
42.9%

Draw
23.3%

Kiekko-Espoo
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

25.7%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

26.5%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Kiekko-Espoo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPK than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kiekko-Espoo than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

HPK - Kiekko Espoo Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. HPK will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Kiekko-Espoo will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. HPK (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Saarinen K. (G)	35. Rajaniemi S. (G)
63. Eronen E. (A)	3. Keskitalo M. (A)
74. Nikkila P. (C)	51. Nakyva K.
16. Wright C.	89. Quenneville P.
12. Paivarinta S.	78. Tuomaala A.
15. Korhonen O.	28. Hamalainen J.
Line 2
43. Kukkonen M.	7. Jurmo J.
4. Jokirinne V.	34. Laakso A.
50. Skinnari A.	8. Hillis C.
64. Kainulainen H. (A)	14. Stevens J. (A)
10. Vesterinen R.	4. Kangasniemi I.
Line 3
51. Ketonen A.	21. Peltomaki N.
6. Sertti L.	55. Aronsson A.
44. Kopiloff O.	18. Leppanen O.
25. Huttunen H.	75. Virtanen S. (C)
19. Rautiainen T.	40. Sallinen T.
Line 4
3. Kangas K.	23. Heinanen A.
81. Aaltonen S.	22. Katavisto A.
23. Loponen M.	37. Hirschovits J.
21. Pulli T.	16. Vaisanen J.
Substitutes
35. Saarinen K. (G)	60. Taponen R. (G)
Coaches
. Manner M.	. Aho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
17:53, Aronsson A. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 0)
02:50, Stevens J. (2 min),
03:48, 1 - 0, Paivarinta S. (G), Rautiainen T. (A), Jokirinne V. (A2)
08:19, Tuomaala A. (2 min),
14:44, Vesterinen R. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
03:45, 2 - 0, Wright C. (G), Paivarinta S. (A), Nikkila P. (A2)
11:32, Nikkila P. (2 min),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 4.

HPK is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Kiekko-Espoo's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Kiekko-Espoo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, HPK won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:17. (average 3.1:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, HPK won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:9. (average 4:2.3).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Hameenlinna: 1.94% Kiekko-Espoo: 1.71%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
7	Kiekko-Espoo	13	5	1	3	4	42:32	20
10	Hameenlinna	12	4	3	0	5	28:35	18

Last Results with these Odds

Kiekko-Espoo - the odds 2.62 are the expected chance of winning is 36.07%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HPK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
05.01.26	Tappara - HPK	2:1 ✺
03.01.26	HPK - Mikkelin Jukurit	3:1 ✺
30.12.25	HPK - JYP	2:3 OT ✺
27.12.25	Ässät - HPK	4:3 OT ✺
26.12.25	HPK - Ilves	3:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLLL
- Kiekko-Espoo
Finnish SM-liiga
03.01.26	Kiekko-Espoo - Tappara	2:5 ✺
27.12.25	Kiekko-Espoo - TPS	8:1 ✺
26.12.25	TPS - Kiekko-Espoo	0:1 ✺
20.12.25	Kiekko-Espoo - Ilves	2:5 ✺
19.12.25	Ilves - Kiekko-Espoo	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
10.12.25	Kiekko-Espoo - HPK	3:1
20.09.25	HPK - Kiekko-Espoo	3:2 OT
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
27.08.25	HPK - Kiekko-Espoo	3:1
Finnish SM-liiga
22.02.25	HPK - Kiekko-Espoo	5:4 OT
18.01.25	Kiekko-Espoo - HPK	0:3
25.10.24	Kiekko-Espoo - HPK	5:2
27.09.24	HPK - Kiekko-Espoo	5:2

HPK - Kiekko-Espoo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide