Match Info

SM-sarja U20 - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday


	HPK U20		Pelicans U20

	1	X	2
	1.85	4.3	2.75
	2.17	3.95	2.56
	2.17	4.15	2.6	Watch
	2.15	3.9	2.5
	2.18	3.92	2.6
	2.05	3.75	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (2.04)	4 ↓ (4.14)	2.6 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HPK U20
42.9%

Draw
22.5%

Pelicans U20
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

22%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

23.6%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HPK U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Pelicans U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPK U20 than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pelicans U20 than the current prediction. (+1%)

HPK U20 - Pelicans U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
17:46, 1 - 0, Fagerstrom V. (G), Toivonen V. (A), Liski T. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 1)
04:20, 2 - 0, Pulli T. (G), Lappalainen M. (A), Toivonen V. (A2)
18:04, 2 - 1, Saharinen S. (G), Chrons A. (A), Alalauri S. (A2)

Preview

Hameenlinna leads series 2-1. Fourth leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK U20 won 4.

HPK U20 is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Pelicans U20 is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

HPK U20 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

We predict that HPK U20 will win today's game, with odds of 2.05.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HPK U20 won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 47:74. (average 2.4:3.7).

Including home matches between the teams, HPK U20 won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 21:31. (average 2.3:3.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
2	Hameenlinna U20	10	7	0	2	1	46:22	23
6	Pelicans Lahti U20	10	7	0	0	3	37:26	21

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HPK U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
21.03.26	Pelicans U20 - HPK U20	1:4 ✺
19.03.26	HPK U20 - Pelicans U20	1:3 ✺
17.03.26	Pelicans U20 - HPK U20	1:5 ✺
12.03.26	TPS U20 - HPK U20	3:4 ✺
11.03.26	HPK U20 - TPS U20	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WLWWW
- Pelicans U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
21.03.26	Pelicans U20 - HPK U20	1:4 ✺
19.03.26	HPK U20 - Pelicans U20	1:3 ✺
17.03.26	Pelicans U20 - HPK U20	1:5 ✺
07.03.26	KalPa U20 - Pelicans U20	3:2 penalties ✺
06.03.26	HIFK U20 - Pelicans U20	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
21.03.26	Pelicans U20 - HPK U20	1:4
19.03.26	HPK U20 - Pelicans U20	1:3
17.03.26	Pelicans U20 - HPK U20	1:5
13.02.26	HPK U20 - Pelicans U20	3:2
23.01.26	Pelicans U20 - HPK U20	1:5
17.01.26	Pelicans U20 - HPK U20	2:0
17.10.25	HPK U20 - Pelicans U20	7:4

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