Match Info

Liiga

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Tampere Deck Arena (Tampere)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	Ilves		Ässät

	1	X	2
	1.56	5	4.5
	1.47	5.07	5.74	Watch
	1.5	4.73	5.33
	1.4	4.5	4.8
	1.47	5.1	5.38	Watch
	1.44	5	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.57)	4.9 ↑ (4.57)	5.29 ↑ (4.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ilves
63.3%

Draw
19%

Ässät
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.3%

20.4%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

21.3%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Ässät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ilves that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ässät than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Ilves - Ässät Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:1

#ad

Lineups

Line 1
39. Pavlat D. (G)	39. Lindberg F. (G)
23. Johansson S.	25. Boelius L.
57. Parikka J.	37. Maatta R. (A)
29. Looke J.	16. Noiva N.
9. Jasek L.	44. Jarvinen J. (C)
92. Henman L.	47. Tammela J.
Line 2
3. Utunen T. (A)	67. Puutio K.
28. Nyberg J.	3. Anttalainen A.
46. Torok M.	88. Olofsson J.
12. Mantykivi M.	74. Tiivola P. (A)
17. Ratinen S.	93. Vanhatalo L.
Line 3
6. Soini S.	8. Viljanen V.
21. Kucerik R.	10. Nilsson O.
48. Klingberg C. (A)	9. Lipiainen V.
11. Borg E.	14. Sebok B.
22. Engberg T.	20. Talaja R.
Line 4
43. Latvala O.	55. Riihinen P.
72. Svejkovsky L.	26. Kim A.
86. Nattinen J. (C)	86. Knihti F.
38. Teuho-Markkola T.	63. Kostilainen S.
Substitutes
60. Taponen R. (G)	30. Bednar J. (G)
Coaches
. Niemela T.	. Pikkarainen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
06:32, 0 - 1, Jarvinen J. (G), Viljanen V. (A), Tammela J. (A2)
08:51, 1 - 1, Torok M. (G), Nyberg J. (A), Ratinen S. (A2)
13:00, Tiivola P. (2 min),
14:48, Vanhatalo L. (2 min),
14:48, Torok M. (2 min),
2nd Period (2 - 0)
03:23, 2 - 1, Nattinen J. (G), Teuho-Markkola T. (A), Svejkovsky L. (A2)
04:17, 3 - 1, Engberg T. (G), Johansson S. (A), Borg E. (A2)
16:51, Latvala O. (2 min),
3rd Period (2 - 0)
00:53, 4 - 1, Looke J. (G), Jasek L. (A), Henman L. (A2)
11:33, 5 - 1, Klingberg C. (G), Henman L. (A), Latvala O. (A2)

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Ilves may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ilves is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 47:42. (average 2.4:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ilves won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 26:16. (average 2.6:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
1	Ilves	12	8	1	0	3	36:24	26
3	Assat	12	6	1	2	3	30:27	22

Last Results with these Odds

Ilves - the odds 1.57 are the expected chance of winning is 59.26%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilves hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
16.01.26	Ässät - Ilves	2:1 ✺
14.01.26	Ilves - JYP	3:4 penalties ✺
10.01.26	Ilves - HIFK	6:0 ✺
09.01.26	HIFK - Ilves	1:0 ✺
07.01.26	Ilves - Vaasan Sport	3:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLWLW
- Ässät hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
16.01.26	Ässät - Ilves	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	Ässät - Tappara	1:5 ✺
09.01.26	Tappara - Ässät	6:2 ✺
07.01.26	Ässät - Kärpät	4:3 ✺
30.12.25	Vaasan Sport - Ässät	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
16.01.26	Ässät - Ilves	2:1
05.12.25	Ässät - Ilves	3:4 penalties
26.09.25	Ilves - Ässät	2:3
04.01.25	Ässät - Ilves	2:1
03.01.25	Ilves - Ässät	3:1
06.10.24	Ilves - Ässät	1:2
02.10.24	Ässät - Ilves	3:0

Ilves - Ässät: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide