Match Info

Liiga

Date: 9 January 2026, Friday

Location: Helsinki Ice Hall (Helsinki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV 3, MTV Katsomo+


	HIFK		Ilves

	1	X	2
	2.75	4.3	2.11
	2.8	3.96	2.26
	2.76	4.21	2.16
	2.63	3.75	2.1
	2.71	4.15	2.21	Watch
	2.8	4	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.4)	4.06 ↓ (4.18)	2.17 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HIFK
34.1%

Draw
23%

Ilves
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

22.3%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

24.4%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HIFK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HIFK than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for HIFK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilves, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

HIFK - Ilves Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ilves (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
60. Alnefelt H. (G)	40. Armalis M. (G)
28. Ervasti K.	23. Johansson S.
11. Melart I. (A)	57. Parikka J.
81. Pakarinen I. (C)	46. Torok M.
21. Lehtera J. (A)	9. Jasek L.
19. Lundell K.	17. Ratinen S.
Line 2
33. Kiviharju A.	3. Utunen T. (A)
40. Lindbohm P.	28. Nyberg J.
43. Marleau V.	29. Looke J.
77. Kodytek P.	12. Mantykivi M.
71. Makiaho D.	72. Svejkovsky L.
Line 3
90. Salmela S.	43. Latvala O.
4. Nykyri N.	21. Kucerik R.
27. Josling S.	48. Klingberg C. (A)
47. Ashbrook T.	11. Borg E.
54. Somervuori J.	22. Engberg T.
Line 4
78. Seppala J.	5. Niskanen A.
15. Somppi O.	38. Teuho-Markkola T.
42. Sinivuori L.	86. Nattinen J. (C)
	20. Bjorkqvist K.
Substitutes
50. Elias R. (G)	39. Pavlat D. (G)
86. Tiainen H.
Coaches
. Jokinen O.	. Niemela T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
05:35, Alnefelt H. ↓, Elias R. ↑,
06:42, Lindbohm P. (2 min),
09:21, Josling S. (5 min),
09:21, Engberg T. (5 min),
11:37, Marleau V. (2 min),
18:34, Nattinen J. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 0)
06:54, Svejkovsky L. (2 min),
07:29, 1 - 0, Kodytek P. (G), Pakarinen I. (A), Marleau V. (A2)
15:55, Nyberg J. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 0)
15:38, Sinivuori L. (2 min),
15:38, Mantykivi M. (2 min),
16:15, Lehtera J. (2 min),
19:59, Jasek L. (2 min),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HIFK won 3.

HIFK has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ilves is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Ilves is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HIFK won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 42:56. (average 2.1:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, HIFK won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 28:25. (average 2.8:2.5).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

IFK Helsinki: 4.75%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
1	Ilves	12	8	1	0	3	36:24	26
14	IFK Helsinki	11	3	1	2	5	31:34	13

Last Results with these Odds

Ilves - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 38.85%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HIFK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
07.01.26	HIFK - KalPa	5:1 ✺
03.01.26	HIFK - JYP	5:3 ✺
Spengler Cup
29.12.25	Davos - HIFK	3:0 ✺
28.12.25	Fribourg-Gottéron - HIFK	4:3 ✺
27.12.25	HIFK - Sparta Prague	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWLLL
- Ilves hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
07.01.26	Ilves - Vaasan Sport	3:2 OT ✺
03.01.26	Ilves - TPS	5:2 ✺
30.12.25	Ilves - Kärpät	3:2 OT ✺
27.12.25	Vaasan Sport - Ilves	1:4 ✺
26.12.25	HPK - Ilves	3:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
11.10.25	HIFK - Ilves	6:1
10.10.25	Ilves - HIFK	3:0
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
09.08.25	HIFK - Ilves	3:2
Finnish SM-liiga
18.01.25	HIFK - Ilves	1:3
17.01.25	Ilves - HIFK	2:3 penalties
20.12.24	Ilves - HIFK	2:0
12.10.24	HIFK - Ilves	4:0

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