Match Info

SM-sarja U20

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday


	Ilves U20		Kärpät U20

	1	X	2
	1.85	4.5	2.55
	1.71	4.29	3.46
	1.7	4.74	3.49	Watch
	1.68	4.2	3.35
	1.68	4.45	3.6
	1.71	4.3	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.69)	4.41 ↑ (4.39)	3.29 ↓ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilves U20
52.3%

Draw
20.4%

Kärpät U20
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

20.6%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.8%

21.8%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilves U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Kärpät U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves U20 than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kärpät U20 than the current prediction. (-3%)

Ilves U20 - Kärpät U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (2 - 2)
03:59, 1 - 0, Svenn A. (G), Rinne R. (A), Pesu V. (A2)
08:34, 1 - 1, Gussander E. (G), Kylmala O. (A), Jurvelin L. (A2)
13:48, 2 - 1, Liljeberg M. (G), Kuukasjarvi R. (A),
19:58, 2 - 2, Gussander E. (G), Jurvelin L. (A), Jaako J. (A2)
3rd Period (3 - 1)
04:21, 2 - 3, Karjalainen A. (G),
05:34, 3 - 3, Melanen J. (G), Petaja K. (A),
09:46, 4 - 3, Liljeberg M. (G), Karttu K. (A), Nippala J. (A2)
16:41, 5 - 3, Zwikel M. (G), Nippala J. (A), Rinne R. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves U20 won 4.

In recent outings, Ilves U20 has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Kärpät U20 is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Kärpät U20 may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Ilves U20 carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Ilves U20 has recorded 10 wins, 0 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 66:65 (averaging 3.3:3.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ilves U20 against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with 32:38 goals (averaging 2.9:3.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
7	Karpat U20	12	5	3	0	4	40:35	21
10	Ilves U20	10	4	1	1	4	36:43	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilves U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
02.10.26	Kiekko-Espoo U20 - Ilves U20	2:3 ✺
27.09.26	Ässät U20 - Ilves U20	1:3 ✺
26.09.26	Ilves U20 - JYP U20	2:6 ✺
20.09.26	Ilves U20 - Tappara U20	2:4 ✺
19.09.26	Ilves U20 - TPS U20	6:5 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWLLW
- Kärpät U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
03.10.26	Kärpät U20 - Vaasan Sport U20	3:2 OT ✺
02.10.26	Kärpät U20 - Lukko U20	5:1 ✺
27.09.26	SaiPa U20 - Kärpät U20	2:5 ✺
26.09.26	KooKoo U20 - Kärpät U20	1:4 ✺
20.09.26	TPS U20 - Kärpät U20	3:4 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
22.03.26	Kärpät U20 - Ilves U20	3:6
21.03.26	Ilves U20 - Kärpät U20	2:3 penalties
19.03.26	Kärpät U20 - Ilves U20	2:7
17.03.26	Ilves U20 - Kärpät U20	5:4
23.01.26	Ilves U20 - Kärpät U20	4:3 OT
01.11.25	Kärpät U20 - Ilves U20	0:3
31.10.25	Kärpät U20 - Ilves U20	2:9

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