Match Info

Liiga

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Oulun Energia Areena (Oulu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2


	Kärpät		Mikkelin Jukurit

	1	X	2
	1.73	4.2	3.8
	1.69	4.25	4.4
	1.86	3.67	3.45
	1.76	4.34	3.93	Watch
	1.7	4	3.5
	1.78	4.3	3.72	Watch
	1.74	4.4	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.98)	4.17 ↑ (3.72)	3.81 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Kärpät
53.2%

Draw
22.4%

Mikkelin Jukurit
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.7%

25.4%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kärpät has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kärpät's performance.

Mikkelin Jukurit has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mikkelin Jukurit than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Kärpät - Mikkelin Jukurit Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

#ad

Lineups

Line 1
41. Rubin N. (G)	1. Herpin M. (G)
47. Bjork M.	53. Korkola N.
26. Tichacek J.	3. Arola J. (A)
38. Raty Aku	54. Piitulainen J. (C)
33. Hirvonen R.	16. Ford C.
73. Erholtz E. (A)	52. Hynninen T.
Line 2
55. Ohtamaa A. (C)	58. Johansson K.
25. Paaso A.	70. Saari E.
93. Kantner M.	10. Olsen T.
11. Virta P. (A)	20. Addamo J.
8. Tieksola T.	96. Frilander J.
Line 3
39. Juusola V.	71. Romppanen N.
27. Jonsson S.	7. Worge Kreu W.
59. Hermonen J.	82. Ruuttu A.
19. Tikka T.	89. Tammela J.
29. Alasiurua A.	76. Hamalainen S. (A)
Line 4
61. Salmela T.	18. Sandvik V.
21. Viuhkola N.	6. Remes O.
28. Ojantakanen K.	63. Heikkinen L.
18. Antti-Roiko A.
Substitutes
31. Vedenpaa V. (G)	29. Buitenhuis E. (G)
Coaches
. Karjalainen P.	. Virtanen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 2)
05:26, Raty Aku (2 min),
06:02, 0 - 1, Arola J. (G), Tammela J. (A), Ruuttu A. (A2)
10:29, 1 - 1, Raty Aku (G), Hirvonen R. (A), Erholtz E. (A2)
11:17, Salmela T. (2 min),
12:06, 1 - 2, Hamalainen S. (G), Tammela J. (A), Arola J. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
07:19, Korkola N. (2 min),
09:03, 2 - 2, Raty Aku (G), Kantner M. (A), Erholtz E. (A2)
16:25, Tieksola T. (2 min),
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (1 - 0)
1, Raty Aku (Penalty Shot),
1, Arola J. (Penalty Shot),
2, Virta P. (Penalty Shot),
2, Frilander J. (Penalty Shot),
3, Hirvonen R. (Penalty Shot),
3, Piitulainen J. (Penalty Shot),
4, Tammela J. (Penalty Shot),
4, Kantner M. (Penalty Shot),
5, Ruuttu A. (Penalty Shot),
5, Raty Aku (Penalty Shot),
6, Olsen T. (Penalty Shot),
6, Virta P. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 3.

Kärpät is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Jukurit has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Kärpät may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Kärpät might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 56:46. (average 2.8:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Kärpät won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:23. (average 3:2.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Kärpät - the odds 1.98 are the expected chance of winning is 47.67%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Mikkelin Jukurit - the odds 3.5 are the expected chance of winning is 26.96%, but this team recently wins 7% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
17.12.25	Kärpät - Kiekko-Espoo	4:3 ✺
13.12.25	Kärpät - SaiPa	3:4 OT ✺
10.12.25	Lukko - Kärpät	5:2 ✺
05.12.25	Kärpät - HIFK	0:1 ✺
29.11.25	Pelicans - Kärpät	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLLL
- Mikkelin Jukurit
Finnish SM-liiga
17.12.25	Mikkelin Jukurit - Vaasan Sport	4:0 ✺
11.12.25	TPS - Mikkelin Jukurit	3:1 ✺
09.12.25	Ässät - Mikkelin Jukurit	4:0 ✺
05.12.25	Mikkelin Jukurit - SaiPa	1:4 ✺
29.11.25	HIFK - Mikkelin Jukurit	2:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
12.11.25	Kärpät - Mikkelin Jukurit	4:3 penalties
10.10.25	Mikkelin Jukurit - Kärpät	6:3
25.01.25	Mikkelin Jukurit - Kärpät	2:3
18.12.24	Kärpät - Mikkelin Jukurit	1:2 OT
15.11.24	Mikkelin Jukurit - Kärpät	0:2
13.09.24	Kärpät - Mikkelin Jukurit	3:2
30.03.24	Mikkelin Jukurit - Kärpät	3:4 OT

Upcoming Matches