Match Info

Liiga

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Oulun Energia Areena (Oulu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	Kärpät		Tappara

	1	X	2
	3.5	4.75	1.75
	3.5	3.95	1.95	Watch
	4.03	4.22	1.7
	4.14	4.45	1.67	Watch
	3.3	4	1.75
	3.81	4.65	1.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.71 ↑ (3.49)	4.34 ↓ (4.39)	1.76 ↓ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kärpät
25.2%

Draw
21.6%

Tappara
53.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

26.8%

21.3%

51.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

21.6%

51.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kärpät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Tappara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tappara than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Kärpät - Tappara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:4

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Lineups

Line 1
31. Vedenpaa V. (G)	77. Metsola J. (G)
58. Hakanpaa J.	21. Matinmikko A.
26. Tichacek J.	23. Jokipakka J.
38. Raty Aku	11. Simontaival K.
33. Hirvonen R.	20. Keskinen O.
18. Antti-Roiko A.	27. Tanus K. (A)
Line 2
25. Paaso A.	44. Juolevi O.
61. Salmela T.	26. Mattila Je.
93. Kantner M.	88. Blichfeld J.
11. Virta P. (A)	22. Rasanen A.
73. Erholtz E. (C)	78. Rautiainen B.
Line 3
4. Ruotsalainen V.	63. Tuulola J. (A)
27. Jonsson S.	6. Brickley D.
12. Stalberg S.	82. Tuulola E.
19. Tikka T.	89. Suvanto O.
13. Junttila J.	25. Haapala H.
Line 4
7. Peltonen J.	15. Andersson J.
51. Pietila B.	24. Addamo J.
28. Ojantakanen K.	62. Mattila Ju. (C)
59. Hermonen J.	51. Sylvegard E.
Substitutes
30. Rossi J. (G)	30. Heljanko C. (G)
Coaches
. Karjalainen P.	. Gronborg R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 2)
02:41, Jokipakka J. (2 min),
09:54, 1 - 0, Erholtz E. (G), Kantner M. (A), Virta P. (A2)
16:50, Tikka T. (2 min),
17:42, 1 - 1, Rautiainen B. (G), Blichfeld J. (A), Matinmikko A. (A2)
18:39, 1 - 2, Haapala H. (G),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
3rd Period (0 - 2)
11:54, Simontaival K. (2 min),
16:46, 1 - 3, Rautiainen B. (G), Juolevi O. (A), Mattila Ju. (A2)
18:44, 1 - 4, Sylvegard E. (G), Matinmikko A. (A),

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 3.

Recent performances by Kärpät have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tappara is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Kärpät may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tappara will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 50:60. (average 2.5:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Kärpät won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 31:34. (average 3.1:3.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
8	Karpat	16	5	4	4	3	45:43	27
10	Tappara	15	6	2	1	6	40:32	23

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Tappara: 23.99%

Last Results with these Odds

Kärpät - the odds 3.49 are the expected chance of winning is 26.78%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
20.02.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - Kärpät	5:4 ✺
18.02.26	KooKoo - Kärpät	4:3 ✺
17.02.26	Pelicans - Kärpät	0:5 ✺
14.02.26	Kärpät - KalPa	3:1 ✺
13.02.26	Kärpät - KalPa	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LLWWL
- Tappara hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
27.02.26	KalPa - Tappara	1:10 ✺
20.02.26	Pelicans - Tappara	4:3 ✺
18.02.26	Tappara - JYP	4:1 ✺
14.02.26	Lukko - Tappara	1:4 ✺
13.02.26	Tappara - Ilves	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
04.02.26	Tappara - Kärpät	1:4
01.11.25	Kärpät - Tappara	3:4
27.09.25	Tappara - Kärpät	3:2
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
29.08.25	Kärpät - Tappara	4:3 OT
Finnish SM-liiga
12.03.25	Tappara - Kärpät	0:3
08.03.25	Kärpät - Tappara	2:4
28.09.24	Kärpät - Tappara	5:8

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