Match Info

Liiga

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday

Location: Wemasto Areena (Lahti)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Pelicans		Kärpät

	1	X	2
	2.15	4	2.75
	2.10	4.00	2.85
	2.25	3.85	2.95
	2.19	3.62	2.94
	2.16	3.97	2.86	Watch
	2.14	3.5	2.85
	2.16	4.05	2.84	Watch
	2.14	3.8	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2.14)	3.85 ↓ (3.88)	2.86 ↓ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pelicans
43.1%

Draw
24.2%

Kärpät
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

24.1%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.6%

27.4%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pelicans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Kärpät has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pelicans than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pelicans, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Pelicans - Kärpät Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
32. Bartosak P. (G)	41. Rubin N. (G)
65. Nutivaara M. (A)	21. Matinmikko A.
71. Hakkila H.	25. Paaso A.
37. Dudas A.	16. Okany A.
95. Batna O.	33. Hirvonen R.
9. Fortier G.	82. Pakkila E.
Line 2
4. Johannesen J.	9. Soini K.
15. Lerby C.	26. Tichacek J.
90. Hawel L.	93. Kantner M.
7. Stapley B.	31. Koivistoinen E. (A)
96. Kumpula J.	27. Ratinen S.
Line 3
55. Falk H.	3. Kokkonen L.
47. Jordan M. (C)	2. Rissanen R.
12. Hamalainen S.	73. Erholtz E. (C)
87. Myklukha O.	19. Tikka T.
74. Teutari E.	8. Tieksola T.
Line 4
49. Amhamdi O.	61. Salmela T. (A)
29. Vaananen M.	59. Hermonen J.
27. Lind O.	62. Nilsson W.
23. Forsberg C. (A)	80. Korpimaki M.
82. Kettunen A.	37. Erholtz A.
Substitutes
45. Olkinuora J. (G)	32. Vedenpaa V. (G)
Coaches
. Kapanen S.	. Karjalainen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 2)
04:17, Teutari E. (2 min),
04:17, Tikka T. (2 min),
06:52, 1 - 0, Johannesen J. (G), Stapley B. (A), Nutivaara M. (A2)
08:48, 1 - 1, Pakkila E. (G), Okany A. (A), Hirvonen R. (A2)
09:43, Lerby C. (2 min),
11:14, 1 - 2, Erholtz E. (G), Kantner M. (A), Hirvonen R. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
11:45, Dudas A. (2 min),
19:43, Rissanen R. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
13:36, Falk H. (2 min),
14:51, Nilsson W. (2 min),
16:47, 2 - 2, Dudas A. (G), Stapley B. (A), Myklukha O. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 1)
02:14, 2 - 3, Tichacek J. (G), Kantner M. (A),

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 10th in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - 1/8 - finals and 6th in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - 1/8 - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pelicans won 4.

In recent outings, Pelicans has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Kärpät shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Pelicans could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Pelicans has recorded 13 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 56:43 (averaging 2.8:2.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Pelicans against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 28:19 goals (averaging 2.5:1.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
5	Karpat	12	5	2	2	3	34:32	21
10	Pelicans	10	5	0	1	4	24:23	16

Last Results with these Odds

Kärpät - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 32.31%, but this team recently wins 21% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pelicans Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
03.10.26	KooKoo - Pelicans	3:6 ✺
26.09.26	Pelicans - HIFK	2:1 ✺
22.09.26	Jokerit - Pelicans	3:0 ✺
19.09.26	Pelicans - JYP	1:3 ✺
18.09.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - Pelicans	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLLL
- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
07.10.26	Kärpät - Kiekko-Espoo	8:7 OT ✺
03.10.26	HPK - Kärpät	2:1 OT ✺
02.10.26	Kiekko-Espoo - Kärpät	1:3 ✺
30.09.26	Kärpät - SaiPa	4:1 ✺
26.09.26	Vaasan Sport - Kärpät	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
17.02.26	Pelicans - Kärpät	0:5
28.01.26	Kärpät - Pelicans	2:3 OT
29.11.25	Pelicans - Kärpät	5:1
01.10.25	Kärpät - Pelicans	2:3 OT
12.02.25	Kärpät - Pelicans	4:7
11.01.25	Pelicans - Kärpät	2:1
05.12.24	Kärpät - Pelicans	5:4

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