Match Info

Liiga

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday

Location: Olvi Areena (Kuopio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	KalPa		Tappara

	1	X	2
	3	4.25	1.96
	2.90	4.10	2.05
	3.05	3.85	2.15
	2.94	3.86	2.12
	2.95	4.01	2.1	Watch
	2.85	3.75	2.07
	2.9	4.1	2.11	Watch
	2.85	3.85	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↓ (3.14)	3.97 ↑ (3.88)	2.08 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KalPa
31.8%

Draw
23.4%

Tappara
44.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.7%

24.1%

46.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

26%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KalPa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Tappara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KalPa than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tappara than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

KalPa - Tappara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
40. Lekkas S. (G)	77. Metsola J. (G)
57. Lyytinen J.	26. Mattila Je.
18. Gallet H.	23. Jokipakka J.
20. Klemetti A.	88. Blichfeld J.
91. Vilen E.	22. Rasanen A.
9. Maenpaa J.	78. Rautiainen B.
Line 2
4. Jokinen M.	72. Kulonummi K.
8. Ruotsalainen V.	38. Almari N.
22. Borchardt C.	11. Simontaival K.
12. Saarelainen J.	89. Suvanto O.
42. Kapanen K.	25. Haapala H.
Line 3
55. Lappalainen L. (C)	63. Tuulola J. (A)
7. Mononen V.	33. Strandell O.
54. Piitulainen J. (A)	40. Sallinen T.
85. Somppi O.	62. Mattila Ju. (A)
70. Hartikainen T. (A)	87. Fabre D.
Line 4
89. Ketola J.	56. Niemelainen M.
97. Kanak L.	28. Wia W.
86. Kombe K.	42. Rauhala O. (C)
21. Miilunpohja R.	17. Pavel O.
41. Kononen J.
Substitutes
35. Korhonen R. (G)	30. Heljanko C. (G)
	41. Nykanen J.
Coaches
. Tervonen S.	. Jalonen K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
05:46, 0 - 1, Nykanen J. (G), Almari N. (A), Tuulola J. (A2)
05:56, Niemelainen M. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 0)
03:23, Kombe K. (2 min),
10:46, 1 - 1, Kombe K. (G), Gallet H. (A), Somppi O. (A2)
15:44, (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 2)
04:51, Almari N. (2 min),
11:06, 2 - 1, Ruotsalainen V. (G), Maenpaa J. (A), Jokinen M. (A2)
17:19, 2 - 2, Rasanen A. (G), Mattila Ju. (A), Rautiainen B. (A2)
19:41, 2 - 3, Mattila Je. (G), Suvanto O. (A), Simontaival K. (A2)

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12th in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - 1/8 - finals and 11th in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - 1/8 - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KalPa won 2.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

KalPa could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Tappara has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Tappara holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, KalPa has recorded 7 wins, 0 draws, and 13 losses, with a goal aggregate of 47:72 (averaging 2.4:3.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for KalPa against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with 23:36 goals (averaging 2.6:4 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Tappara: 25.28%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
9	Tappara	11	5	2	0	4	32:24	19
13	KalPa	11	4	0	1	6	27:29	13

Last Results with these Odds

Tappara - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 46.21%, but this team recently wins 52% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KalPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
03.10.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - KalPa	2:1 OT ✺
02.10.26	KalPa - SaiPa	4:3 ✺
26.09.26	KalPa - Lukko	1:2 ✺
23.09.26	KooKoo - KalPa	4:5 ✺
18.09.26	KalPa - Ilves	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWLWL
- Tappara hockey
Champions League Ice Hockey
07.10.26	Tappara - Storhamar Dragons	1:2 AET ✺
Finnish SM-liiga
02.10.26	Tappara - Jokerit	3:2 AET ✺
30.09.26	Tappara - KooKoo	3:0 ✺
26.09.26	Tappara - SaiPa	2:4 ✺
24.09.26	Lukko - Tappara	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
07.03.26	Tappara - KalPa	3:4 penalties
27.02.26	KalPa - Tappara	1:10
19.09.25	Tappara - KalPa	8:1
13.09.25	KalPa - Tappara	3:5
04.01.25	Tappara - KalPa	2:4
03.01.25	KalPa - Tappara	5:2
30.10.24	KalPa - Tappara	1:4

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