Match Info

Liiga

Date: 18 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Lumon Areena (Kouvola)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	KooKoo		Kärpät

	1	X	2
	1.53	5.25	4.5
	1.52	4.82	5.32	Watch
	1.49	4.8	5.19
	1.48	4.91	5.38	Watch
	1.48	5.2	5.13	Watch
	1.47	4.75	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.75)	4.96 ↑ (4.39)	5.17 ↑ (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KooKoo
62.9%

Draw
19%

Kärpät
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

21.3%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

21.9%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KooKoo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in KooKoo's performance.

Kärpät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kärpät might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KooKoo than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with KooKoo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kärpät could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

KooKoo - Kärpät Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. KooKoo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: KooKoo will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:1

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Lineups

Line 1
32. Jatkola J. (G)	31. Vedenpaa V. (G)
43. Loponen K.	58. Hakanpaa J.
41. Berger J.	61. Salmela T.
82. Meskanen V.	93. Kantner M.
71. Siikonen M. (A)	33. Hirvonen R.
88. Rooba R. (A)	73. Erholtz E. (A)
Line 2
28. Ahlroth J.	65. Nutivaara M.
42. Suomi J.	39. Juusola V.
55. Gallo V.	38. Raty Aku
70. Davidsson M.	13. Junttila J.
24. Miettinen V.	18. Antti-Roiko A.
Line 3
17. Grondahl A.	55. Ohtamaa A. (C)
6. Riekkinen J.	25. Paaso A.
11. Mazura T.	51. Pietila B.
13. Paajanen O. (C)	19. Tikka T.
22. Luoto O.	21. Viuhkola N.
Line 4
7. Parssinen J.	4. Ruotsalainen V.
15. Jaakola O.	94. Salovaara E.
27. Makinen A.	28. Ojantakanen K.
20. Valkeejarvi S.	59. Hermonen J.
Substitutes
34. Randelin E. (G)	41. Rubin N. (G)
Coaches
. Myrra J.	. Karjalainen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
01:11, 0 - 1, Raty Aku (G), Ruotsalainen V. (A), Junttila J. (A2)
02:39, Hakanpaa J. (2 min),
06:33, Ahlroth J. (2 min),
12:25, 1 - 1, Miettinen V. (G), Gallo V. (A), Davidsson M. (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 2)
01:49, 2 - 1, Davidsson M. (G), Gallo V. (A), Miettinen V. (A2)
04:24, 2 - 2, Juusola V. (G), Raty Aku (A), Junttila J. (A2)
12:18, Ojantakanen K. (2 min),
14:16, 3 - 2, Gallo V. (G), Miettinen V. (A), Loponen K. (A2)
19:59, 3 - 3, Salmela T. (G), Erholtz E. (A), Hirvonen R. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
19', 4 - 3, Suomi J. (G),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KooKoo won 3.

KooKoo is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Kärpät's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

KooKoo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, KooKoo is seen as the favorite.

We predict that KooKoo will win today's game, with odds of 1.64.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, KooKoo won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 64:63. (average 3.2:3.2).

Including home matches between the teams, KooKoo won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 36:29. (average 3.6:2.9).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

KooKoo: 1.04%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
5	Karpat	12	5	2	2	3	34:32	21
17	KooKoo	11	1	0	1	9	22:47	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KooKoo
Finnish SM-liiga
14.02.26	HPK - KooKoo	2:4 ✺
13.02.26	KooKoo - HPK	7:3 ✺
10.02.26	KooKoo - Vaasan Sport	4:1 ✺
07.02.26	KooKoo - Lukko	1:3 ✺
06.02.26	Ilves - KooKoo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWWLW
- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
17.02.26	Pelicans - Kärpät	0:5 ✺
14.02.26	Kärpät - KalPa	3:1 ✺
13.02.26	Kärpät - KalPa	2:5 ✺
07.02.26	Kärpät - Ilves	1:2 ✺
06.02.26	HIFK - Kärpät	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
28.11.25	KooKoo - Kärpät	4:5 penalties
26.09.25	Kärpät - KooKoo	3:6
19.02.25	Kärpät - KooKoo	2:1
10.01.25	KooKoo - Kärpät	5:3
27.11.24	KooKoo - Kärpät	2:1
26.10.24	Kärpät - KooKoo	3:2
07.03.24	Kärpät - KooKoo	6:2

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