Match Info

Liiga

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Let's Go Areena (Mikkeli)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Mikkelin Jukurit		Kärpät

	1	X	2
	2.50	4.00	2.30
	2.55	3.80	2.35
	2.63	3.70	2.40
	2.59	3.59	2.46
	2.56	3.76	2.46	Watch
	2.50	3.55	2.45
	2.51	3.94	2.41	Watch
	2.50	3.75	2.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↓ (2.76)	3.76 ↑ (3.69)	2.4 ↑ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mikkelin Jukurit
36.6%

Draw
24.7%

Kärpät
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

25.1%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

28.2%

36.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mikkelin Jukurit has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Kärpät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mikkelin Jukurit than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Mikkelin Jukurit - Kärpät Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
41. Myrenberg J. (G)	32. Vedenpaa V. (G)
53. Korkola N.	21. Matinmikko A.
70. Saari E.	25. Paaso A.
29. Boudon L.	16. Okany A.
20. Addamo J.	33. Hirvonen R.
11. Horvath B.	82. Pakkila E.
Line 2
26. Sustr A.	9. Soini K.
36. Ruusu E.	26. Tichacek J.
92. Olofsson J.	93. Kantner M.
16. Ford C. (C)	31. Koivistoinen E. (A)
15. Hayhurst J.	27. Ratinen S.
Line 3
40. Lintuniemi A. (A)	3. Kokkonen L.
5. Kurri A.	2. Rissanen R.
88. Jormakka P.	8. Tieksola T.
25. Sjodin L.	19. Tikka T.
96. Frilander J.	73. Erholtz E. (C)
Line 4
19. Tiihonen L.	61. Salmela T. (A)
10. Olsen T. (A)	62. Nilsson W.
57. Chrons A.	80. Korpimaki M.
62. Remes O.	59. Hermonen J.
Substitutes
34. Ahonen V.	37. Erholtz A.
1. Herpin M. (G)	41. Rubin N. (G)
Coaches
. Virtanen J.	. Karjalainen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
03:40, Soini K. (2 min),
13:46, Salmela T. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
02:20, Salmela T. (2 min),
04:10, Jormakka P. (2 min),
04:54, 0 - 1, Tichacek J. (G), Hirvonen R. (A), Erholtz E. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
03:32, Okany A. (2 min),
16:22, 1 - 1, Sjodin L. (G), Frilander J. (A), Sustr A. (A2)
Overtime (1 - 0)
01:28, 2 - 1, Lintuniemi A. (G), Boudon L. (A), Olofsson J. (A2)

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - Quarter - finals and 5th in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - 1/8 - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jukurit won 2.

In recent outings, Jukurit has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Kärpät is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Jukurit has recorded 8 wins, 0 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 52:57 (averaging 2.6:2.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Jukurit against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with 27:27 goals (averaging 2.7:2.7 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Jukurit: 1.99%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
2	Jukurit	14	6	3	0	5	36:29	24
4	Karpat	13	5	2	3	3	35:34	22

Last Results with these Odds

Kärpät - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.35%, but this team recently wins 52% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mikkelin Jukurit
Finnish SM-liiga
09.10.26	KooKoo - Mikkelin Jukurit	4:1 ✺
07.10.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - Ässät	0:1 ✺
03.10.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - KalPa	2:1 OT ✺
29.09.26	Ilves - Mikkelin Jukurit	3:2 ✺
26.09.26	KooKoo - Mikkelin Jukurit	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LLWLW
- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
09.10.26	Pelicans - Kärpät	2:3 OT ✺
07.10.26	Kärpät - Kiekko-Espoo	8:7 OT ✺
03.10.26	HPK - Kärpät	2:1 OT ✺
02.10.26	Kiekko-Espoo - Kärpät	1:3 ✺
30.09.26	Kärpät - SaiPa	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
20.02.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - Kärpät	5:4
20.12.25	Kärpät - Mikkelin Jukurit	3:2 penalties
12.11.25	Kärpät - Mikkelin Jukurit	4:3 penalties
10.10.25	Mikkelin Jukurit - Kärpät	6:3
25.01.25	Mikkelin Jukurit - Kärpät	2:3
18.12.24	Kärpät - Mikkelin Jukurit	1:2 OT
15.11.24	Mikkelin Jukurit - Kärpät	0:2

Mikkelin Jukurit - Kärpät: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide