Match Info

Liiga

Date: 30 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Oulun Energia Areena (Oulu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Kärpät		SaiPa

	1	X	2
	2.20	4.25	2.55
	2.25	3.90	2.65
	2.38	3.80	2.63	Watch
	2.42	3.77	2.55
	2.32	4.06	2.59	Watch
	2.35	3.70	2.50
	2.28	4.15	2.59	Watch
	2.29	3.90	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.45)	3.94 ↓ (3.95)	2.58 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kärpät
40.3%

Draw
23.6%

SaiPa
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

23.7%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

25.8%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kärpät has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

SaiPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SaiPa than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Kärpät - SaiPa Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Kärpät will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). SaiPa will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
41. Rubin N. (G)	31. Grigals G. (G)
21. Matinmikko A.	6. Airola S.
25. Paaso A.	7. Niinisaari S. (C)
16. Okany A.	10. Emanuelsson E.
33. Hirvonen R.	28. Intonen A.
82. Pakkila E.	11. Fridrich P.
Line 2
9. Soini K.	22. Aho K.
26. Tichacek J.	50. Salminen S. (A)
73. Erholtz E. (C)	57. Hokkanen O.
31. Koivistoinen E. (A)	41. Zabaneh N.
93. Kantner M.	52. Palmu P.
Line 3
3. Kokkonen L.	14. Kramer B.
2. Rissanen R.	55. Trejbal O.
11. Tornqvist H.	70. Naukkarinen J.
19. Tikka T.	34. Perttu M.
27. Ratinen S.	75. Siikanen P.
Line 4
61. Salmela T. (A)	17. Svensk V.
62. Nilsson W.	18. Heikkila J.
80. Korpimaki M.	15. Salomaki M. (A)
18. Antti-Roiko A.	81. Klintrup E.
Substitutes
59. Hermonen J.	30. Piiroinen K. (G)
32. Vedenpaa V. (G)	62. Tauslahti M.
Coaches
. Karjalainen P.	. Helminen R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 0)
06:04, Aho K. (2 min),
08:08, 1 - 0, Koivistoinen E. (G), Ratinen S. (A), Pakkila E. (A2)
10:13, 2 - 0, Erholtz E. (G), Kantner M. (A), Soini K. (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 1)
10:32, 3 - 0, Korpimaki M. (G), Matinmikko A. (A), Paaso A. (A2)
11:03, Fridrich P. (2 min),
11:21, 3 - 1, Hokkanen O. (G),
12:15, 4 - 1, Ratinen S. (G), Pakkila E. (A), Tornqvist H. (A2)
14:54, Fridrich P. (2 min),
14:54, Soini K. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 0)
15:44, Salomaki M. (2 min),
15:44, Salomaki M. (2 min),
16:51, Klintrup E. (2 min),
19:37, Erholtz E. (2 min),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 0.

In recent outings, Kärpät has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

SaiPa shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Kärpät could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Kärpät has recorded 11 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 69:55 (averaging 3.5:2.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Kärpät against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 28:24 goals (averaging 2.8:2.4 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Saipa: 4.11%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
5	Karpat	12	5	2	2	3	34:32	21

Last Results with these Odds

Kärpät - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 38.16%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

SaiPa - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 38.16%, but this team recently wins 47% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
26.09.26	Vaasan Sport - Kärpät	1:2 ✺
23.09.26	HIFK - Kärpät	3:1 ✺
22.09.26	Tappara - Kärpät	4:0 ✺
19.09.26	Kärpät - Vaasan Sport	3:2 ✺
16.09.26	Kärpät - Ilves	3:4 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLLWL
- SaiPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
26.09.26	Tappara - SaiPa	2:4 ✺
25.09.26	Ässät - SaiPa	0:5 ✺
23.09.26	SaiPa - Ässät	1:2 penalties ✺
19.09.26	SaiPa - KooKoo	2:1 OT ✺
18.09.26	KooKoo - SaiPa	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
24.01.26	SaiPa - Kärpät	7:4
14.01.26	Kärpät - SaiPa	1:2
13.12.25	Kärpät - SaiPa	3:4 OT
11.10.25	SaiPa - Kärpät	4:3
24.01.25	SaiPa - Kärpät	6:3
11.12.24	Kärpät - SaiPa	3:2
13.11.24	SaiPa - Kärpät	4:3

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