Match Info

Mestis

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Kattokeskus Areena (Nokia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	Nokian Pyry		Hermes Kokkola

	1	X	2
	2.27	4.2	2.5	Watch
	2.25	3.78	2.38
	2.33	4.18	2.49	Watch
	2.25	3.8	2.4
	2.28	4.1	2.41
	2.2	4.25	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↓ (2.33)	4.05 ↓ (4.11)	2.44 ↓ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nokian Pyry
40.2%

Draw
22.5%

Hermes Kokkola
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

22.6%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

25.1%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nokian Pyry has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Hermes Kokkola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nokian Pyry than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hermes Kokkola than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Nokian Pyry - Hermes Kokkola Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
35. Nauseda F. (G)	31. Makela A. (G)
43. Virtala J.	56. Nissinen T.
28. Bilgili S.	34. Lauri O.
8. Peltola S.	84. Savolainen V.
25. Hakanen S.	10. Takala E.
27. Ahvenlampi M.	11. Merilainen N.
Line 2
9. Hietaniemi V.	25. Gronblom T.
32. Valtonen T.	16. Cederberg E.
92. Nyppeli J.	71. Airo J.
38. Himmanen N.	51. Vahatalo J.
24. Jarventie E.	20. Virolainen J.
Line 3
26. Lehikoinen A.	33. Monkkonen M.
4. Ylitalo V.	45. Vainio J.
7. Nykanen J.	61. Hahl V.
12. Valimaki V.	18. Niinisto J.
34. Mantymaki T.	17. Puikkonen T.
Line 4
3. Mannikko T.	28. Honkasalo J.
29. Aaltonen J.	15. Ohtonen J.
44. Salmi L.	53. Ulvila A.
11. Kivimaki V.
Substitutes
31. Makinen V. (G)	35. Tapaninaho A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
02:41, 1 - 0, Jarventie E. (G), Nykanen J. (A), Nyppeli J. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 2)
02:48, 1 - 1, Merilainen N. (G), Vahatalo J. (A), Lauri O. (A2)
18:30, 1 - 2, Nissinen T. (G), Monkkonen M. (A), Niinisto J. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 2)
11:32, 1 - 3, Niinisto J. (G), Honkasalo J. (A), Ulvila A. (A2)
18:31, 2 - 3, Hakanen S. (G), Virtala J. (A), Bilgili S. (A2)
19:19, 3 - 3, Nykanen J. (G), Bilgili S. (A), Hakanen S. (A2)
19:48, 3 - 4, Merilainen N. (G), Ohtonen J. (A), Gronblom T. (A2)

Preview

In recent matches, Pyry has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Hermes is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Pyry may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Pyry has had a series of away games.

Recently, Hermes has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Pyry won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:15. (average 3:3.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Pyry won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 3.5:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
5	Hermes	8	2	1	2	3	22:25	10
6	Pyry	9	3	0	1	5	26:31	10

Last Results with these Odds

Hermes Kokkola - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.48%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nokian Pyry
Finnish Mestis
30.01.26	TuTo - Nokian Pyry	0:3 ✺
24.01.26	RoKi - Nokian Pyry	5:1 ✺
23.01.26	Hermes Kokkola - Nokian Pyry	5:0 ✺
20.01.26	Jokerit - Nokian Pyry	3:4 ✺
17.01.26	Nokian Pyry - Imatran Ketterä	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.2 WLLWW
- Hermes Kokkola
Finnish Mestis
30.01.26	Hermes Kokkola - Jokerit	4:2 ✺
24.01.26	Hermes Kokkola - Imatran Ketterä	2:1 OT ✺
23.01.26	Hermes Kokkola - Nokian Pyry	5:0 ✺
17.01.26	Hermes Kokkola - KeuPa	4:1 ✺
14.01.26	Imatran Ketterä - Hermes Kokkola	4:5 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Mestis
23.01.26	Hermes Kokkola - Nokian Pyry	5:0
02.01.26	Hermes Kokkola - Nokian Pyry	6:5 penalties
29.11.25	Nokian Pyry - Hermes Kokkola	5:4
18.10.25	Nokian Pyry - Hermes Kokkola	2:0

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