Match Info

VHL

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished


	Chelmet		Norilsk

	1	X	2
	3.27	3.89	1.74
	3.2	3.8	1.7
	4.21	4.4	1.66	Watch
	3.9	4.2	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.65 ↑ (2.3)	4.07 ↑ (4.05)	1.69 ↓ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelmet
24.7%

Draw
22.1%

Norilsk
53.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.5%

23%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

23.6%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelmet has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chelmet's form might have worsened.

Norilsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Norilsk's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelmet than the current prediction. (+16.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chelmet, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Norilsk than the current prediction. (-18.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Norilsk, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Chelmet - Norilsk Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelmet (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Utenkov D. (G)	77. Guskov Y. (G)
26. Kovalenko A.	11. Steklov K.
89. Fedoseyev Y.	4. Shalapov Y. (C)
14. Zinovyev I. (C)	88. Shalagin M. (A)
57. Telegin N.	36. Zlodeyev D.
34. Gusmanov F.	23. Klimovich Y.
Line 2
81. Isakov Y.	43. Sinitsky I.
21. Pronichkin A.	66. Drugalya S. (A)
98. Kolodiy L.	86. Kirileichenko M.
42. Sharov A.	10. Lipanov A.
29. Mokin M. (A)	14. Sinyatkin S.
Line 3
5. Borodkin A. (A)	74. Perelyayev S.
18. Mikanovich D.	3. Melyakov K.
73. Mits Z.	69. Filin F.
95. Aglamzyanov R.	87. Gorbunov Y.
64. Kulagin A.	17. Golodnyuk S.
Line 4
87. Anufriyenko N.	22. Rodionov A.
65. Borbuzanov G.	28. Shevchenko A.
67. Shchekoldin K.	67. Sharifyanov T.
90. Golovnyov Y.	89. Yemets I.
91. Tsyplakov A.
Substitutes
93. Mosharov D. (G)	98. Gluschenko R. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (0 - 1)
03:11, 0 - 1, Drugalya S. (G), Sinitsky I. (A), Shalagin M. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 1)
09:40, 1 - 1, Zinovyev I. (G), Aglamzyanov R. (A),
18:03, 1 - 2, Zlodeyev D. (G), Shalagin M. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelmet won 3.

Recent results have been tough for Chelmet (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Norilsk shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Chelmet could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Our forecast points to a victory for Norilsk in today's match, at odds of 2.24.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Chelmet has recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:13 (averaging 3.2:2.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Chelmet against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 10:6 goals (averaging 3.3:2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
2	HC Norilsk	20	11	2	2	5	49:43	28
29	Chelmet Chelyabinsk	17	3	1	2	11	30:62	10

Last Results with these Odds

Chelmet - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.55%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Norilsk - the odds 2.56 are the expected chance of winning is 36.43%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Chelmet
VHL
16.10.26	Kaluga - Chelmet	5:1 ✺
14.10.26	AKM - Chelmet	4:2 ✺
12.10.26	Ryazan - Chelmet	8:0 ✺
04.10.26	Chelmet - Bars Kazan	3:4 ✺
02.10.26	Chelmet - Neftyanik Almetyevsk	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLLLW
- HK Norilsk
VHL
21.10.26	Magnitka Magnitogorsk - Norilsk	2:3 OT ✺
19.10.26	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Norilsk	3:2 ✺
12.10.26	Norilsk - Molot Perm	3:1 ✺
10.10.26	Norilsk - Toros Neftekamsk	5:3 ✺
08.10.26	Norilsk - Izhstal	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

VHL
03.02.26	Norilsk - Chelmet	2:3
16.10.25	Chelmet - Norilsk	1:3
16.03.25	Chelmet - Norilsk	4:1
08.09.24	Norilsk - Chelmet	3:2
14.12.23	Norilsk - Chelmet	2:4
26.10.23	Chelmet - Norilsk	5:2

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