Match Info

VHL

Date: 16 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Yunost arena (Chelyabinsk)


	Chelmet		Norilsk

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.84	3.07
	1.97	4.15	3.15	Watch
	1.86	4.2	3.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.86)	4.06 ↓ (4.2)	3.22 ↓ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelmet
47.6%

Draw
23.2%

Norilsk
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

22.3%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.8%

21.3%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelmet has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Norilsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelmet than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chelmet, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Norilsk than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Chelmet - Norilsk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Utenkov D. (G)	45. Nikitin V. (G)
42. Yusupov V.	18. Alexeyev D.
90. Klimontov K.	43. Ugolnikov A. (A)
29. Mokin M.	56. Mokin N. (A)
37. Mits Z.	13. Kaletnik V. (C)
14. Zinovyev I.	63. Yemets I.
Line 2
43. Rodionov M.	72. Korchemkin D.
48. Pronichkin A.	98. Abdeyev I.
97. Matyushin A.	71. Golodnyuk S.
95. Aglamzyanov R.	89. Gorbunov D.
16. Shen A.	93. Korenev I.
Line 3
73. Fedoseyev Y.	64. Minayev Y.
66. Drugalya S.	28. Makeyev N.
33. Rykmanov A.	26. Bain M.
83. Gorbunov S.	11. Shevchenko V.
46. Shaveko V.	69. Skorikov D.
Line 4
36. Shubin D.	51. Popov O.
79. Savelyev A.	55. Alkhimov S.
25. Fakhrutdinov R.	58. Yadykin Y.
57. Telegin N.	97. Leontyev A.
17. Yekimov N.
Substitutes
93. Mosharov D. (G)	88. Smirnov A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
07:30, 0 - 1, Korenev I. (G), Golodnyuk S. (A),
2nd Period (1 - 2)
13:46, 0 - 2, Korenev I. (G), Gorbunov D. (A), Golodnyuk S. (A2)
16:26, 1 - 2, Aglamzyanov R. (G), Rykmanov A. (A),
16:45, 1 - 3, Gorbunov D. (G), Korenev I. (A), Golodnyuk S. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 0)

Preview

Chelmet is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Norilsk's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Chelmet may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Chelmet is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Chelmet will win today's game, with odds of 1.98.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Chelmet won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:8. (average 3.8:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Chelmet won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:3. (average 4.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Chelmet - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 50.37%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Norilsk - the odds 3.43 are the expected chance of winning is 27.32%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Chelmet
VHL
11.10.25	SKA-VMF - Chelmet	3:4 ✺
09.10.25	Dinamo St. Petersburg - Chelmet	1:2 ✺
03.10.25	Chelmet - Neftyanik Almetyevsk	4:3 ✺
01.10.25	Chelmet - Chelny	6:2 ✺
29.09.25	Chelmet - Bars Kazan	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WWWWW
- HK Norilsk
VHL
14.10.25	Magnitka Magnitogorsk - Norilsk	2:3 ✺
12.10.25	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Norilsk	2:1 ✺
06.10.25	Norilsk - Torpedo-Gorky	0:5 ✺
04.10.25	Norilsk - Khimik	0:4 ✺
02.10.25	Norilsk - Zvezda Moscow	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

VHL
16.03.25	Chelmet - Norilsk	4:1
08.09.24	Norilsk - Chelmet	3:2
14.12.23	Norilsk - Chelmet	2:4
26.10.23	Chelmet - Norilsk	5:2

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