Match Info

AHL

Date: 9 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Toyota Arena (Ontario, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Flohockey


	Ontario Reign		Texas Stars

	1	X	2
	1.95	4.2	2.8	Watch
	1.97	4.35	2.95	Watch
	1.98	4.34	2.82
	1.88	4.58	3.13	Watch
	1.95	4.2	2.88
	1.93	4.1	3.07	Watch
	1.86	3.85	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.19)	4.23 ↑ (4.11)	2.97 ↑ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ontario Reign
47.5%

Draw
21.7%

Texas Stars
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

22.6%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

22.5%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ontario Reign has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ontario Reign's performance.

Texas Stars has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ontario Reign than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Texas Stars than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Ontario Reign - Texas Stars Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Texas (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Copley P. (G)	30. Tiefensee A. (G)
59. Alexandrov N.	27. Becker J.
58. Bolduc S.	3. Bertucci T.
24. Booth A.	21. Chisholm S.
7. Burroughs K.	10. Ertel J.
8. Chromiak M.	19. Hughes C. (A)
17. Connors K.	12. Hyry A.
55. Dvorak J.	26. Karow M.
21. Gawdin G. (A)	17. Lind K. (A)
81. Guttman C.	37. Looft K.
27. Hicketts J. (C)	16. McKenzie C. (C)
47. Hughes J.	24. Punnett C.
86. Jamsen A.	11. Scott H.
26. Lee A. (A)	13. Seminoff M.
71. Pinelli F.	38. Shlaine A.
10. Salin O.	40. Stranges A.
34. Ward T.	2. Taylor T.
78. Wright J.	29. Wheatcroft C.
13. Ziemmer K.	8. White G.
Substitutes
49. Saville I. (G)	1. Poirier R. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 0)
13:11, 1 - 0, Chromiak M. (G),
13:55, 2 - 0, Alexandrov N. (G), Guttman C. (A), Bolduc S. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
04:14, 2 - 1, Stranges A. (G), Bertucci T. (A), Lind K. (A2)
07:34, 3 - 1, Connors K. (G), Wright J. (A), Lee A. (A2)
3rd Period (3 - 2)
03:58, 4 - 1, Alexandrov N. (G), Booth A. (A), Ziemmer K. (A2)
07:16, 4 - 2, Shlaine A. (G), Bertucci T. (A),
18', 4 - 3, (G),
20', 5 - 3, (G),
20', 6 - 3, (G),

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: ) and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ontario won 2.

Ontario is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Texas has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Texas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Ontario has had a series of home games.

Recently, Texas has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ontario won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 62:62. (average 3.1:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ontario won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:31. (average 3.1:3.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Texas Stars - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 34.94%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ontario Reign
AHL
07.12.25	Ontario Reign - Calgary Wranglers	2:1 OT ✺
06.12.25	Ontario Reign - Calgary Wranglers	6:1 ✺
30.11.25	Ontario Reign - Texas Stars	1:4 ✺
28.11.25	Ontario Reign - Henderson Silver Knights	4:3 ✺
22.11.25	Bakersfield Condors - Ontario Reign	2:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWLWW
- Texas Stars
AHL
07.12.25	San Diego Gulls - Texas Stars	5:1 ✺
05.12.25	San Diego Gulls - Texas Stars	2:3 OT ✺
03.12.25	Coachella Valley Firebirds - Texas Stars	3:2 penalties ✺
30.11.25	Ontario Reign - Texas Stars	1:4 ✺
29.11.25	Coachella Valley Firebirds - Texas Stars	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

AHL
30.11.25	Ontario Reign - Texas Stars	1:4
19.03.25	Texas Stars - Ontario Reign	1:4
18.03.25	Texas Stars - Ontario Reign	5:2
03.12.24	Ontario Reign - Texas Stars	3:5
29.11.24	Ontario Reign - Texas Stars	4:0
29.12.18	Texas Stars - Ontario Reign	5:1
01.11.18	Ontario Reign - Texas Stars	5:3

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