Match Info

NHL

Date: 26 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Canadian Tire Centre (Ottawa, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Ottawa Senators		Pittsburgh Penguins

	1	X	2
	2.05	4.1	3.05	Watch
	2.12	4.05	2.95
	2.08	4.25	3
	2.04	4.31	3.02	Watch
	2.05	3.9	2.8
	2.06	4.33	3.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.9)	4.16 ↓ (4.49)	2.97 ↓ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ottawa Senators
45.6%

Draw
22.7%

Pittsburgh Penguins
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

21.1%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

21.7%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ottawa Senators has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Pittsburgh Penguins has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ottawa Senators than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pittsburgh Penguins than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	18.2%	27.3%

Ottawa Senators - Pittsburgh Penguins Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Ottawa will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Pittsburgh will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ottawa: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
35. Ullmark L. (G)	74. Skinner S. (G)
2. Zub A.	65. Karlsson E.
43. Kleven T.	28. Wotherspoon P.
28. Giroux C. (A)	17. Rust B. (A)
18. Stutzle T. (A)	87. Crosby S. (C)
19. Batherson D.	67. Rakell R.
Line 2
10. Spence J.	58. Letang K. (A)
33. Matinpalo N.	49. Girard S.
71. Greig R.	59. Chinakhov Y.
24. Cozens D.	18. Novak T.
7. Tkachuk B. (C)	39. Mantha A.
Line 3
58. Yakemchuk C.	75. Clifton C.
. Donovan J.	5. Shea R.
22. Amadio M.	16. Brazeau J.
12. Pinto S.	81. Kindel B.
21. Cousins N.	41. Koivunen V.
Line 4
20. Zetterlund F.	55. Acciari N.
89. Eller L.	19. Dewar C.
37. Foegele W.	25. Soderblom E.
Substitutes
47. Reimer J. (G)	37. Silovs A. (G)
Coaches
. Green T.	. Muse D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
03:29, Karlsson E. (2 min),
04:28, 1 - 0, Batherson D. (G), Tkachuk B. (A), Stutzle T. (A2)
13:46, 1 - 1, Rakell R. (G), Karlsson E. (A),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
01:50, 2 - 1, Cousins N. (G), Kleven T. (A), Ullmark L. (A2)
03:44, 2 - 2, Karlsson E. (G), Rakell R. (A), Kindel B. (A2)
19:49, Cozens D. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
00:22, Zub A. (2 min),
01:43, 2 - 3, Rakell R. (G), Karlsson E. (A), Rust B. (A2)
03:58, 3 - 3, Batherson D. (G), Stutzle T. (A), Spence J. (A2)
03:58, Koivunen V. (2 min),
03:58, (2 min),
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (1 - 2)
1, Batherson D. (Penalty Shot),
1, Rakell R. (Penalty Shot),
2, Stutzle T. (Penalty Shot),
2, Chinakhov Y. (Penalty Shot),
3, Pinto S. (Penalty Shot),
3, Kindel B. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ottawa won 4.

Ottawa is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Pittsburgh's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Pittsburgh may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ottawa could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Ottawa: Chabot T. (Arm Injury) Gilbert D. (Upper-Body Injury) Jensen N. (Knee Injury) Sanderson J. (Upper-Body Injury) Thomson L. (Lower-Body Injury)

There will not play in Pittsburgh: Jones C. (Doping) Lizotte B. (Upper-Body Injury) Malkin E. (Upper-Body Injury)

There are questionable in Pittsburgh: Mantha A. (Lower-Body Injury)

We predict that Ottawa will win today's game, with odds of 2.06.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ottawa won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 60:55. (average 3:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ottawa won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 29:22. (average 3.2:2.4).

Outrights of NHL for now

Ottawa Senators: 2.53% Pittsburgh Penguins: 1.18%

Last Results with these Odds

Ottawa Senators - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 49.76%, but this team recently wins 62% of matches with these odds.

Pittsburgh Penguins - the odds 3.24 are the expected chance of winning is 29.18%, but this team recently wins 41% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ottawa Senators
NHL
24.03.26	Detroit Red Wings - Ottawa Senators	2:3 ✺
23.03.26	New York Rangers - Ottawa Senators	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Ottawa Senators - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:2 ✺
19.03.26	Ottawa Senators - New York Islanders	3:2 ✺
18.03.26	Washington Capitals - Ottawa Senators	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWWL
- Pittsburgh Penguins
NHL
24.03.26	Pittsburgh Penguins - Colorado Avalanche	2:6 ✺
22.03.26	Pittsburgh Penguins - Carolina Hurricanes	1:5 ✺
21.03.26	Pittsburgh Penguins - Winnipeg Jets	5:4 penalties ✺
18.03.26	Carolina Hurricanes - Pittsburgh Penguins	6:5 OT ✺
16.03.26	Colorado Avalanche - Pittsburgh Penguins	2:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
02.02.26	Pittsburgh Penguins - Ottawa Senators	2:3
18.12.25	Ottawa Senators - Pittsburgh Penguins	4:0
30.03.25	Pittsburgh Penguins - Ottawa Senators	1:0 OT
11.01.25	Pittsburgh Penguins - Ottawa Senators	0:5
14.12.24	Ottawa Senators - Pittsburgh Penguins	3:2 OT
29.09.24	Ottawa Senators - Pittsburgh Penguins	2:5
12.03.24	Ottawa Senators - Pittsburgh Penguins	2:1 OT

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