Match Info

NHL

Date: 1 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Canadian Tire Centre (Ottawa, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Ottawa Senators		Washington Capitals

	1	X	2
	2.1	4	3	Watch
	2.08	4.28	2.96
	2.15	4.23	2.85	Watch
	2.1	4	3
	2.09	4.57	3
	2.1	4	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.34)	4.18 ↓ (4.47)	2.97 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ottawa Senators
45.2%

Draw
22.8%

Washington Capitals
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

21.7%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

21.7%

36.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ottawa Senators has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Washington Capitals has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ottawa Senators than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Washington Capitals than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Ottawa Senators - Washington Capitals Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Washington will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 5.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 5.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Washington Capitals will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Merilainen L. (G)	48. Thompson L. (G)
2. Zub A.	74. Carlson J. (A)
85. Sanderson J.	38. Sandin R.
20. Zetterlund F.	8. Ovechkin A. (C)
18. Stutzle T.	17. Strome D.
7. Tkachuk B. (C)	21. Protas A.
Line 2
3. Jensen N.	3. Roy M.
72. Chabot T. (A)	6. Chychrun J.
19. Batherson D.	43. Wilson T. (A)
24. Cozens D.	34. Sourdif J.
57. Perron D.	24. McMichael C.
Line 3
10. Spence J.	57. Van Riemsdyk T.
43. Kleven T.	42. Fehervary M.
28. Giroux C. (A)	9. Leonard R.
12. Pinto S.	26. Dowd N.
22. Amadio M.	72. Beauvillier A.
Line 4
21. Cousins N.	53. Frank E.
83. Halliday S.	29. Lapierre H.
71. Greig R.	22. Duhaime B.
Substitutes
31. Shepard H. (G)	79. Lindgren C. (G)
Coaches
. Green T.	. Carbery S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 2)
04:21, Ovechkin A. (2 min),
08:13, 0 - 1, Wilson T. (G), Sourdif J. (A),
09:16, Strome D. (2 min),
09:16, Zub A. (2 min),
09:16, Zub A. (2 min),
14:25, Batherson D. (5 min),
14:25, Sourdif J. (5 min),
17:53, Jensen N. (2 min),
18:59, 0 - 2, Strome D. (G), Leonard R. (A), Chychrun J. (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 0)
03:13, Cousins N. (2 min),
07:42, 1 - 2, Jensen N. (G), Sanderson J. (A), Pinto S. (A2)
08:21, McMichael C. (2 min),
09:23, Perron D. (2 min),
15:41, Cousins N. (2 min),
15:41, Van Riemsdyk T. (2 min),
19:31, 2 - 2, Greig R. (G), Pinto S. (A), Amadio M. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 1)
02:47, 3 - 2, Perron D. (G), Halliday S. (A), Cousins N. (A2)
03:39, Roy M. (2 min),
11:21, Beauvillier A. (2 min),
15:53, 3 - 3, Protas A. (G), Sourdif J. (A), Wilson T. (A2)
17:38, 4 - 3, Zetterlund F. (G), Chabot T. (A), Stutzle T. (A2)

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ottawa won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Ottawa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ottawa might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Ottawa: Eller L. (Foot Injury) Ullmark L. (Personal Reasons)

There will not play in Washington: Dubois P. (Abdominal strain)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ottawa won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 62:72. (average 3.1:3.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Ottawa won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:30. (average 3.1:3.3).

Outrights of NHL for now

Washington Capitals: 5.74% Ottawa Senators: 2.53%

Last Results with these Odds

Ottawa Senators - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 41.5%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Washington Capitals - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 36.78%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ottawa Senators
NHL
29.12.25	Ottawa Senators - Columbus Blue Jackets	1:4 ✺
27.12.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Ottawa Senators	7:5 ✺
23.12.25	Ottawa Senators - Buffalo Sabres	2:3 OT ✺
21.12.25	Boston Bruins - Ottawa Senators	2:6 ✺
20.12.25	Ottawa Senators - Chicago Blackhawks	6:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLLWW
- Washington Capitals
NHL
31.12.25	Washington Capitals - New York Rangers	6:3 ✺
29.12.25	Florida Panthers - Washington Capitals	5:3 ✺
27.12.25	New Jersey Devils - Washington Capitals	3:4 OT ✺
23.12.25	Washington Capitals - New York Rangers	3:7 ✺
21.12.25	Detroit Red Wings - Washington Capitals	3:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

NHL
25.10.25	Washington Capitals - Ottawa Senators	1:7
03.03.25	Washington Capitals - Ottawa Senators	5:4 penalties
30.01.25	Ottawa Senators - Washington Capitals	5:4 OT
16.01.25	Ottawa Senators - Washington Capitals	0:1 OT
07.04.24	Washington Capitals - Ottawa Senators	2:3 OT
26.02.24	Washington Capitals - Ottawa Senators	6:3
18.10.23	Ottawa Senators - Washington Capitals	6:1

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