Match Info

VHL

Date: 25 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Sports Palace (Tyumen)


	Rubin Tyumen		Norilsk

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.96	3.57
	1.89	4.05	3.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.84)	4.01 ↑ (3.7)	3.5 ↓ (3.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rubin Tyumen
49.9%

Draw
23.4%

Norilsk
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51%

25.4%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

24.9%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rubin Tyumen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Norilsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rubin Tyumen than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Norilsk than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Rubin Tyumen - Norilsk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
90. Gabdrakhmanov D. (G)	45. Nikitin V. (G)
11. Popov Y.	18. Alexeyev D.
12. Lyutov D.	43. Ugolnikov A. (A)
27. Davydov D.	56. Mokin N. (A)
10. Petrakov I.	86. Melnichenko K.
9. Ivanov S.	69. Skorikov D.
Line 2
55. Stikhanovsky M.	72. Korchemkin D.
93. Vashchenko N.	98. Abdeyev I.
80. Koshurnikov K.	91. Lazarev A.
18. Meshcheryakov M.	58. Yadykin Y.
22. Babenko Y.	55. Alkhimov S.
Line 3
28. Tsyganov D.	64. Minayev Y.
35. Vdovin Y.	28. Makeyev N.
43. Voronkov P.	26. Bain M.
85. Styozhkin I.	13. Kaletnik V. (C)
78. Meshkov P.	63. Yemets I.
Line 4
6. Gatiyatulin I.	21. Kolomiytsev I.
53. Voevodin D.	71. Golodnyuk S.
57. Kanitsky Y.	89. Gorbunov D.
66. Piliya D.	93. Korenev I.
Substitutes
1. Gromovik Y. (G)	88. Smirnov A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 0)
06:02, 1 - 0, Petrakov I. (G), Davydov D. (A),
06:59, 2 - 0, Meshcheryakov M. (G), Lyutov D. (A), Babenko Y. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
04:26, 3 - 0, Kanitsky Y. (G), Voevodin D. (A), Piliya D. (A2)
19:58, 3 - 1, Korenev I. (G), Gorbunov D. (A), Golodnyuk S. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 1)
19:19, 3 - 2, Gorbunov D. (G), Korenev I. (A), Mokin N. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rubin won 4.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Norilsk may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Rubin will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Rubin won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 28:17. (average 3.1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Rubin won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:9. (average 3.4:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Rubin Tyumen - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 51.03%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rubin Tyumen
VHL
21.09.25	SKA-VMF - Rubin Tyumen	1:5 ✺
19.09.25	Dinamo St. Petersburg - Rubin Tyumen	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	Rubin Tyumen - Neftyanik Almetyevsk	1:3 ✺
10.09.25	Rubin Tyumen - Chelny	1:2 OT ✺
08.09.25	Rubin Tyumen - Bars Kazan	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLLLW
- HK Norilsk
VHL
23.09.25	Zauralie Kurgan - Norilsk	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	Omskie Krylia - Norilsk	4:2 ✺
16.09.25	Norilsk - Tambov	2:3 OT ✺
14.09.25	Norilsk - Rostov	3:2 ✺
12.09.25	Norilsk - Buran Voronezh	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

VHL
11.02.25	Norilsk - Rubin Tyumen	1:0
09.10.24	Rubin Tyumen - Norilsk	2:1
02.03.24	Rubin Tyumen - Norilsk	6:3
29.02.24	Norilsk - Rubin Tyumen	4:5 OT
28.02.24	Norilsk - Rubin Tyumen	2:3
24.02.24	Rubin Tyumen - Norilsk	5:1
23.02.24	Rubin Tyumen - Norilsk	2:3

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