Match Info

Liiga

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Kisapuisto (Lappeenranta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	SaiPa		Kärpät

	1	X	2
	1.77	4.75	3.4
	1.83	4.34	3.62	Watch
	1.8	3.97	3.51
	1.83	4.17	3.61	Watch
	1.75	4	3.4
	1.82	4.45	3.48	Watch
	1.83	4.25	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.84)	4.28 ↑ (3.97)	3.52 ↓ (3.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SaiPa
51.7%

Draw
21.8%

Kärpät
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

23.5%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

24.8%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SaiPa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Kärpät has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SaiPa than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

SaiPa - Kärpät Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
33. Karhunen T. (G)	41. Rubin N. (G)
50. Salminen S. (A)	58. Hakanpaa J.
26. Kivihalme T.	26. Tichacek J.
25. Kuusla E.	38. Raty Aku
15. Salomaki M. (A)	33. Hirvonen R.
51. Kalapudas A.	12. Stalberg S.
Line 2
14. Kramer B.	47. Bjork M. (A)
55. Trejbal O.	25. Paaso A.
41. Fortier M.	93. Kantner M.
82. Nikkanen H.	19. Tikka T.
10. Kivenmaki O.	73. Erholtz E. (A)
Line 3
6. Airola S.	27. Jonsson S.
7. Niinisaari S. (C)	55. Ohtamaa A. (C)
75. Siikanen P.	16. Heikkala V.
12. Bau S.	13. Junttila J.
70. Naukkarinen J.	22. Nikupeteri O.
Line 4
22. Aho K.	61. Salmela T.
81. Klintrup E.	51. Pietila B.
57. Hokkanen O.	28. Ojantakanen K.
18. Heikkila J.	59. Hermonen J.
Substitutes
31. Grigals G. (G)	31. Vedenpaa V. (G)
Coaches
. Helminen R.	. Karjalainen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
02:37, Bjork M. (2 min),
03:15, 1 - 0, Nikkanen H. (G), Airola S. (A), Fortier M. (A2)
13:07, Bau S. (2 min),
13:16, 1 - 1, Kantner M. (G), Erholtz E. (A), Raty Aku (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 1)
00:54, 2 - 1, Kivenmaki O. (G), Nikkanen H. (A), Fortier M. (A2)
03:23, Salminen S. (2 min),
03:37, 2 - 2, Hirvonen R. (G), Kantner M. (A), Erholtz E. (A2)
17:45, 3 - 2, Siikanen P. (G), Salminen S. (A),
3rd Period (4 - 2)
04:21, 4 - 2, Kalapudas A. (G), Trejbal O. (A), Salomaki M. (A2)
06:20, 4 - 3, Kantner M. (G), Tikka T. (A), Hakanpaa J. (A2)
07:29, 5 - 3, Salomaki M. (G), Kalapudas A. (A), Niinisaari S. (A2)
16:21, 6 - 3, Nikkanen H. (G),
17:17, 6 - 4, Erholtz E. (G), Hermonen J. (A), Tikka T. (A2)
19:18, 7 - 4, Fortier M. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, SaiPa won 4.

SaiPa is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Kärpät has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Kärpät may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, SaiPa is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, SaiPa won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 49:67. (average 2.5:3.4).

Including home matches between the teams, SaiPa won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:39. (average 2.5:3.9).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Saipa: 3.72%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	Karpat	13	5	2	3	3	35:34	22

Last Results with these Odds

SaiPa - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50.68%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SaiPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
21.01.26	SaiPa - JYP	2:3 OT ✺
17.01.26	SaiPa - Mikkelin Jukurit	5:2 ✺
16.01.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - SaiPa	3:4 OT ✺
14.01.26	Kärpät - SaiPa	1:2 ✺
10.01.26	Kiekko-Espoo - SaiPa	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 LWWWW
- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
23.01.26	Kiekko-Espoo - Kärpät	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Kärpät - Lukko	5:4 OT ✺
14.01.26	Kärpät - SaiPa	1:2 ✺
10.01.26	TPS - Kärpät	2:3 ✺
09.01.26	Lukko - Kärpät	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
14.01.26	Kärpät - SaiPa	1:2
13.12.25	Kärpät - SaiPa	3:4 OT
11.10.25	SaiPa - Kärpät	4:3
24.01.25	SaiPa - Kärpät	6:3
11.12.24	Kärpät - SaiPa	3:2
13.11.24	SaiPa - Kärpät	4:3
23.10.24	Kärpät - SaiPa	3:6

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