Match Info

Liiga

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Kisapuisto (Lappeenranta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	SaiPa		HPK

	1	X	2
	1.8	4.5	3.5
	1.85	4.05	3.7	Watch
	1.93	4.13	3.23
	1.81	4.26	3.62	Watch
	1.75	4	3.3
	1.92	4.2	3.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.75)	4.19 ↓ (4.39)	3.44 ↓ (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SaiPa
50.6%

Draw
22.3%

HPK
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

21.3%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

22.7%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SaiPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

HPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SaiPa than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPK than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

SaiPa - HPK Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. SaiPa will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
31. Grigals G. (G)	1. Saarinen K. (G)
50. Salminen S. (A)	43. Kukkonen M.
26. Kivihalme T.	4. Jokirinne V.
25. Kuusla E.	16. Wright C.
15. Salomaki M.	12. Paivarinta S.
51. Kalapudas A.	94. Hakulinen A. (A)
Line 2
14. Kramer B.	63. Eronen E.
55. Trejbal O.	20. Pyke G.
41. Fortier M.	88. Kiiskinen J.
82. Nikkanen H.	15. Korhonen O.
10. Kivenmaki O.	11. Caron T.
Line 3
6. Airola S.	51. Ketonen A.
7. Niinisaari S. (C)	74. Nikkila P. (C)
75. Siikanen P.	8. Alitalo V.
12. Bau S.	25. Huttunen H.
62. Tauslahti M.	10. Vesterinen R.
Line 4
22. Aho K.	3. Kangas K.
81. Klintrup E.	50. Skinnari A.
21. Appelgren N. (A)	64. Kainulainen H. (A)
18. Heikkila J.	92. Makinen I.
Substitutes
33. Karhunen T. (G)	33. Vayrynen M. (G)
Coaches
. Helminen R.	. Manner M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
04:54, Caron T. (2 min),
07:49, 0 - 1, Kiiskinen J. (G), Kainulainen H. (A),
10:09, Kukkonen M. (2 min),
12:02, Nikkila P. (2 min),
14:30, (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
06:34, 0 - 2, Wright C. (G), Hakulinen A. (A), Paivarinta S. (A2)
08:10, Heikkila J. (2 min),
11:22, Skinnari A. (2 min),
15:13, Wright C. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 1)
01:41, Vesterinen R. (2 min),
03:33, 0 - 3, Kukkonen M. (G), Kainulainen H. (A), Paivarinta S. (A2)
09:14, Makinen I. (2 min),
10:24, Salomaki M. (2 min),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, SaiPa won 4.

SaiPa has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, HPK has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

SaiPa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, SaiPa is a strong favorite.

We predict that SaiPa will win today's game, with odds of 1.75.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, SaiPa won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 60:45. (average 3:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, SaiPa won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 27:26. (average 3:2.9).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Saipa: 3.72% Hameenlinna: 1.94%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
10	Hameenlinna	12	4	3	0	5	28:35	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SaiPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
27.02.26	HPK - SaiPa	1:5 ✺
25.02.26	TPS - SaiPa	1:3 ✺
21.02.26	SaiPa - KooKoo	6:2 ✺
15.02.26	Ässät - SaiPa	3:4 OT ✺
14.02.26	SaiPa - HIFK	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WWWWW
- HPK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
27.02.26	HPK - SaiPa	1:5 ✺
19.02.26	HPK - KalPa	2:1 penalties ✺
17.02.26	Vaasan Sport - HPK	0:4 ✺
14.02.26	HPK - KooKoo	2:4 ✺
13.02.26	KooKoo - HPK	7:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
27.02.26	HPK - SaiPa	1:5
10.10.25	HPK - SaiPa	1:2
01.10.25	SaiPa - HPK	3:2 OT
14.03.25	HPK - SaiPa	2:3
19.02.25	SaiPa - HPK	3:5
05.12.24	HPK - SaiPa	1:5
28.11.24	SaiPa - HPK	3:2 OT

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