Match Info

KHL

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Ice Palace (Cherepovets)


	Severstal Cherepovets		Barys Astana

	1	X	2
	1.7	4.05	4.22
	1.77	4.3	4.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.82)	4.18 ↓ (4.35)	4.38 ↑ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Severstal Cherepovets
55.2%

Draw
22.9%

Barys Astana
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.7%

21.7%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

22.3%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Severstal Cherepovets has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Barys Astana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Severstal Cherepovets than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barys Astana than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Severstal Cherepovets - Barys Astana Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Severstal will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Barys will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Severstal (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Severstal (1.93) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Severstal (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Skotnikov V. (G)	43. Shutov A. (G)
2. Grudinin V.	44. Walsh R.
75. Davydov T.	2. Massie J. (A)
23. Liska A. (C)	88. Vecchione M.
17. Abrosimov R. (A)	11. Morelli M.
42. Tankov K.	27. Galimov E.
Line 2
77. Fomin M.	24. Breus D.
8. Kaldis Y.	3. McCoshen I.
51. Kvochko I.	13. Kaiyrzhan D.
6. Ivantsov I.	17. Omirbekov A.
12. Skorenov A.	84. Savitsky K. (C)
Line 3
7. Burenov N.	71. Daniyar Sam.
21. Kamalov N.	87. Beketayev A. (A)
13. Pilipenko K.	23. Mukhametov M.
10. Tsitsyura V.	77. Shaikhmeddenov A.
99. Ilyin M.	70. Simonov S.
Line 4
16. Vashchenko G.	31. Korolyov A.
88. Dumbadze D. (A)	34. Kolesnikov V.
66. Podshivalov I.	32. Volkov V.
33. Mukhanov T.	28. Ospanov R.
Substitutes
29. Samoilov A. (G)	35. Shestakov A. (G)
Coaches
. Kozyrev A.	. Kravets M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 2)
04:35, Daniyar Sam. (2 min),
05:47, 1 - 0, Pilipenko K. (G), Ilyin M. (A), Burenov N. (A2)
12:37, 1 - 1, Morelli M. (G), Vecchione M. (A), Galimov E. (A2)
12:57, 1 - 2, Volkov V. (G), Ospanov R. (A), Massie J. (A2)
15:32, Ivantsov I. (2 min),
2nd Period (2 - 0)
02:04, Ospanov R. (2 min),
14:21, 2 - 2, Pilipenko K. (G), Tsitsyura V. (A),
14:58, 3 - 2, Kamalov N. (G), Pilipenko K. (A), Ilyin M. (A2)
19:08, Morelli M. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 0)
18:46, Daniyar Sam. (2 min),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Severstal won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Severstal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Barys has had a series of home games.

In this match, Severstal is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Severstal won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 56:60. (average 2.8:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Severstal won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 32:33. (average 3.2:3.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Severstal Cherepovets - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 51.75%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Severstal Cherepovets
KHL
16.09.25	Severstal Cherepovets - Metallurg Magnitogorsk	2:5 ✺
14.09.25	Severstal Cherepovets - HC CSKA Moscow	1:2 ✺
11.09.25	Spartak Moscow - Severstal Cherepovets	1:2 ✺
09.09.25	Lokomotiv Yaroslavl - Severstal Cherepovets	4:1 ✺
07.09.25	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Severstal Cherepovets	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLWLW
- Barys Astana
KHL
18.09.25	Metallurg Magnitogorsk - Barys Astana	5:1 ✺
15.09.25	Barys Astana - Dynamo Moscow	5:2 ✺
13.09.25	Barys Astana - Dinamo Minsk	1:3 ✺
09.09.25	Barys Astana - Amur Khabarovsk	4:3 penalties ✺
07.09.25	Barys Astana - Traktor Chelyabinsk	4:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.9 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

KHL
20.02.25	Barys Astana - Severstal Cherepovets	2:6
06.12.24	Severstal Cherepovets - Barys Astana	5:3
03.12.23	Severstal Cherepovets - Barys Astana	2:3 OT
12.11.23	Barys Astana - Severstal Cherepovets	4:1
25.01.23	Barys Astana - Severstal Cherepovets	0:1 penalties
24.09.22	Severstal Cherepovets - Barys Astana	5:2
20.11.21	Severstal Cherepovets - Barys Astana	3:4 OT

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