Match Info

AHL

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Tucson Convention Center (Tucson, AZ)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Flohockey


	Tucson Roadrunners		Ontario Reign

	1	X	2
	2.9	4.2	1.91	Watch
	2.95	4.1	2.02
	2.96	4.3	2.01
	2.97	4.33	1.98	Watch
	2.8	3.9	2.05
	2.92	4.1	1.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.7)	4.16 ↑ (3.95)	1.99 ↓ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tucson Roadrunners
31.6%

Draw
22.2%

Ontario Reign
46.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

23.2%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

25.2%

46.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tucson Roadrunners has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Ontario Reign has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tucson Roadrunners than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ontario Reign than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Tucson Roadrunners - Ontario Reign Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
2. Hrabal M. (G)	1. Portillo E. (G)
29. Agozzino A. (A)	59. Alexandrov N.
39. Hebig C.	24. Booth A.
10. Lamoureux M.	91. Brown L.
71. Lipkin S.	8. Chromiak M.
43. Lutz J.	17. Connors K.
72. Luypen J.	37. Doty J. (A)
22. McCartney B. (A)	55. Dvorak J.
45. Nordh N.	21. Gawdin G. (A)
79. Onyebuchi M.	81. Guttman C.
7. Perunovich S.	27. Hicketts J. (C)
27. Poganski A. (C)	47. Hughes J.
15. Ricketts J.	86. Jamsen A.
21. Rooney K.	19. Kirsanov K.
5. Russo R.	26. Lee A.
26. Simashev D.	45. Millar J.
55. Szuber M.	74. Novikov N.
17. Tullio T.	71. Pinelli F.
25. Walker S.	13. Ziemmer K.
Substitutes
31. Villalta M. (G)	29. Copley P. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
01:57, 1 - 0, Hebig C. (G), McCartney B. (A), Rooney K. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 2)
09:19, 2 - 0, Lutz J. (G), Lipkin S. (A), Nordh N. (A2)
10:25, 2 - 1, Dvorak J. (G), Gawdin G. (A), Lee A. (A2)
15:06, 2 - 2, Connors K. (G), Jamsen A. (A), Ziemmer K. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 0)
12:04, 3 - 2, Agozzino A. (G), Simashev D. (A), Perunovich S. (A2)
20', 4 - 2, (G),

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tucson won 0.

Tucson is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ontario's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ontario may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ontario has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tucson won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 45:76. (average 2.3:3.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Tucson won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 26:46. (average 2.4:4.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Tucson Roadrunners - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 33.89%, but this team recently wins 39% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tucson Roadrunners
AHL
27.03.26	Tucson Roadrunners - Ontario Reign	2:3 ✺
23.03.26	Manitoba Moose - Tucson Roadrunners	1:4 ✺
21.03.26	Manitoba Moose - Tucson Roadrunners	3:4 ✺
15.03.26	Tucson Roadrunners - San Jose Barracuda	5:4 ✺
14.03.26	Tucson Roadrunners - San Jose Barracuda	6:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 LWWWW
- Ontario Reign
AHL
27.03.26	Tucson Roadrunners - Ontario Reign	2:3 ✺
25.03.26	Henderson Silver Knights - Ontario Reign	3:1 ✺
21.03.26	Iowa Wild - Ontario Reign	1:3 ✺
20.03.26	Iowa Wild - Ontario Reign	4:1 ✺
18.03.26	Ontario Reign - Abbotsford Canucks	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

AHL
27.03.26	Tucson Roadrunners - Ontario Reign	2:3
04.03.26	Ontario Reign - Tucson Roadrunners	4:1
22.02.26	Tucson Roadrunners - Ontario Reign	3:5
21.02.26	Tucson Roadrunners - Ontario Reign	2:4
04.02.26	Ontario Reign - Tucson Roadrunners	5:1
12.10.25	Ontario Reign - Tucson Roadrunners	4:2
10.10.25	Ontario Reign - Tucson Roadrunners	4:5 OT

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