Match Info

Liiga

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Vaasa Arena (Vaasa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Vaasan Sport		HIFK

	1	X	2
	2.35	4.25	2.35
	2.45	3.90	2.40
	2.55	3.85	2.48	Watch
	2.51	3.65	2.51
	2.42	4.05	2.48	Watch
	2.45	3.6	2.45
	2.42	4.1	2.45	Watch
	2.35	3.9	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.4)	3.91 ↓ (4.2)	2.45 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Vaasan Sport
38.2%

Draw
23.8%

HIFK
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

22.2%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

24.5%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vaasan Sport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

HIFK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vaasan Sport than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HIFK than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Vaasan Sport - HIFK Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. HIFK will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

#ad

Lineups

Line 1
31. Ortio J. (G)	60. Alnefelt H. (G)
8. Viljanen V.	28. Pilo L.
55. Koivisto M. (C)	25. Nassen L.
22. Walther I.	43. Marleau V.
28. Sundstrom J. (A)	77. Leschyshyn J.
17. Diaco G.	72. Liukas E. (A)
Line 2
7. Ervasti K.	27. Ahlroth J.
62. Akerstrom S.	33. Kiviharju A.
86. Granath P.	88. Huuhtanen N. (A)
89. Palve O.	81. Pakarinen I. (C)
71. Nieminen V.	71. Makiaho D.
Line 3
16. Johnsson T.	67. Puutio K.
26. Burger E.	83. Nemecek D.
24. Levanen E.	19. Leppanen O.
9. Grainger L.	18. Uronen A.
44. Harrison B.	93. Vanhatalo L.
Line 4
6. Kangas K.	11. Melart I.
10. Pietila B.	82. Karjalainen A.
18. Timonen S.	42. Sinivuori L.
63. Heikkinen L. (A)	54. Somervuori J.
Substitutes
3. Bertrand C.	12. Joki A.
53. Harkonen M. (G)	53. Varonen V. (G)
Coaches
. Mikkola L.	. Jokinen O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
02:30, Grainger L. (2 min),
06:17, 0 - 1, Ahlroth J. (G), Sinivuori L. (A), Karjalainen A. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
00:44, Nassen L. (2 min),
06:34, Sinivuori L. (2 min),
08:04, 1 - 1, Walther I. (G), Diaco G. (A), Ervasti K. (A2)
10:15, Granath P. (2 min),
10:28, Makiaho D. (2 min),
17:03, Leppanen O. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
10:50, 2 - 1, Akerstrom S. (G), Diaco G. (A), Ervasti K. (A2)
14:53, Burger E. (2 min),
19:05, 2 - 2, Makiaho D. (G), Kiviharju A. (A), Marleau V. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 1)
02:28, 2 - 3, Leschyshyn J. (G), Liukas E. (A), Kiviharju A. (A2)

Preview

A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 14th and 16th in the Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vaasa won 1.

Neither team has been performing at its best in recent fixtures.

Vaasa could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, HIFK has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Vaasa has recorded 6 wins, 1 draw, and 13 losses, with a goal aggregate of 39:55 (averaging 2:2.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Vaasa against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with 20:24 goals (averaging 2:2.4 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

IFK Helsinki: 4.72% Vaasan Sport: 0.79%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
14	Vaasan Sport	11	3	1	2	5	20:31	13
15	IFK Helsinki	10	2	1	2	5	25:33	10

Last Results with these Odds

Vaasan Sport - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 38.89%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

HIFK - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 38.89%, but this team recently wins 47% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vaasan Sport
Finnish SM-liiga
26.09.26	Vaasan Sport - Kärpät	1:2 ✺
23.09.26	Vaasan Sport - Kiekko-Espoo	0:1 AET ✺
19.09.26	Kärpät - Vaasan Sport	3:2 ✺
17.09.26	Lukko - Vaasan Sport	1:2 ✺
15.09.26	Ässät - Vaasan Sport	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LLLWL
- HIFK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
26.09.26	Pelicans - HIFK	2:1 ✺
25.09.26	HIFK - JYP	3:4 ✺
23.09.26	HIFK - Kärpät	3:1 ✺
19.09.26	HIFK - Lukko	2:3 AET ✺
16.09.26	HIFK - Mikkelin Jukurit	4:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
21.01.26	HIFK - Vaasan Sport	4:3 OT
13.12.25	Vaasan Sport - HIFK	3:2 OT
18.12.24	HIFK - Vaasan Sport	3:2 penalties
23.11.24	Vaasan Sport - HIFK	0:1
09.03.24	Vaasan Sport - HIFK	1:4
30.12.23	HIFK - Vaasan Sport	4:1
13.12.23	HIFK - Vaasan Sport	1:3

Upcoming Matches