Match Info

Liiga

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Wemasto Areena (Lahti)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Pelicans		HIFK

	1	X	2
	1.86	4.25	3.3
	1.70	4.33	3.90
	1.85	4.05	3.85	Watch
	1.78	4.12	3.75
	1.76	4.25	3.83	Watch
	1.74	4	3.65
	1.76	4.35	3.77	Watch
	1.78	4	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (2.16)	4.17 ↑ (4.08)	3.7 ↑ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pelicans
52.4%

Draw
22.4%

HIFK
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

22.6%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

23.6%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pelicans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pelicans's performance.

HIFK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and HIFK might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pelicans than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pelicans that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HIFK than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that HIFK could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Pelicans - HIFK Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Pelicans will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pelicans (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
32. Bartosak P. (G)	60. Alnefelt H. (G)
65. Nutivaara M. (A)	27. Ahlroth J.
71. Hakkila H.	25. Nassen L.
37. Dudas A.	43. Marleau V.
95. Batna O.	77. Leschyshyn J.
9. Fortier G.	72. Liukas E. (A)
Line 2
4. Johannesen J.	28. Pilo L.
15. Lerby C.	83. Nemecek D.
90. Hawel L.	88. Huuhtanen N. (A)
7. Stapley B.	81. Pakarinen I. (C)
10. Karvinen R.	71. Makiaho D.
Line 3
55. Falk H.	13. Arkko V.
49. Amhamdi O.	11. Melart I.
12. Hamalainen S.	19. Leppanen O.
87. Myklukha O.	12. Joki A.
96. Kumpula J.	93. Vanhatalo L.
Line 4
47. Jordan M. (C)	67. Puutio K.
27. Lind O.	37. Sippola O.
23. Forsberg C. (A)	42. Sinivuori L.
82. Kettunen A.	18. Uronen A.
	54. Somervuori J.
Substitutes
45. Olkinuora J. (G)	53. Varonen V. (G)
74. Teutari E.
Coaches
. Kapanen S.	. Jokinen O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
01:44, Hamalainen S. (2 min),
07:09, Sippola O. (2 min),
13:26, Batna O. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
01:53, Puutio K. (2 min),
15:28, Sippola O. (2 min),
3rd Period (2 - 1)
08:25, 1 - 0, Karvinen R. (G), Hawel L. (A), Jordan M. (A2)
13:28, 2 - 0, Stapley B. (G), Fortier G. (A), Lerby C. (A2)
17:26, 2 - 1, Makiaho D. (G), Pakarinen I. (A), Pilo L. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pelicans won 1.

Both teams have struggled for positive results in recent outings.

Pelicans could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, HIFK has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Pelicans has recorded 11 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 54:54 (averaging 2.7:2.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Pelicans against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 33:23 goals (averaging 3.3:2.3 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

IFK Helsinki: 4.75%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
12	Pelicans	10	5	0	1	4	24:23	16
14	IFK Helsinki	11	3	1	2	5	31:34	13

Last Results with these Odds

Pelicans - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 42.74%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

HIFK - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 34.65%, but this team recently wins 48% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pelicans Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
22.09.26	Jokerit - Pelicans	3:0 ✺
19.09.26	Pelicans - JYP	1:3 ✺
18.09.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - Pelicans	3:1 ✺
15.09.26	Pelicans - Tappara	2:3 ✺
09.09.26	Pelicans - KalPa	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLLW
- HIFK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
25.09.26	HIFK - JYP	3:4 ✺
23.09.26	HIFK - Kärpät	3:1 ✺
19.09.26	HIFK - Lukko	2:3 AET ✺
16.09.26	HIFK - Mikkelin Jukurit	4:7 ✺
09.09.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - HIFK	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly Ice Hockey
14.08.26	HIFK - Pelicans	4:2
Finnish SM-liiga
17.03.26	HIFK - Pelicans	4:0
06.03.26	Pelicans - HIFK	1:4
24.09.25	HIFK - Pelicans	3:2 OT
13.09.25	Pelicans - HIFK	5:2
04.01.25	HIFK - Pelicans	6:3
03.01.25	Pelicans - HIFK	4:0

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