Match Info

Liiga

Date: 9 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Vaasa Arena (Vaasa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Vaasan Sport		TPS

	1	X	2
	2.85	4.25	2.01
	2.90	4.10	2.05
	3.00	3.95	2.10	Watch
	2.93	3.69	2.18
	3.11	3.81	2.09	Watch
	2.90	3.65	2.13
	2.87	4.15	2.12	Watch
	2.85	3.90	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↓ (3.05)	3.94 ↓ (3.95)	2.1 ↓ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vaasan Sport
31.9%

Draw
23.7%

TPS
44.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

24%

44.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

24.6%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vaasan Sport has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

TPS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

The ML Model estimate for Vaasan Sport aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TPS than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Vaasan Sport - TPS Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. TPS will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Tps (1.70) (votes: 92%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
31. Ortio J. (G)	36. Makiniemi E. (G)
8. Viljanen V.	38. Landen A.
55. Koivisto M. (C)	5. Friman N. (C)
22. Walther I.	49. Wernblom L.
28. Sundstrom J. (A)	97. Haudum L.
17. Diaco G.	22. Bryggman L.
Line 2
7. Ervasti K.	6. Rafkin R. (A)
62. Akerstrom S.	40. Lehtonen S.
86. Granath P.	25. Ikonen Jo.
9. Grainger L.	13. Paajanen O. (A)
71. Nieminen V.	86. Yliniemi S.
Line 3
16. Johnsson T.	2. Tuhkala A.
26. Burger E.	61. Binner A.
3. Bertrand C.	9. Koivu A.
80. Miketinac K.	21. Maatta J.
24. Levanen E.	24. Virtanen J.
Line 4
6. Kangas K.	4. Chicoine G.
63. Heikkinen L. (A)	10. Ylitalo N.
18. Timonen S.	47. Kuru H.
10. Pietila B.	57. Munkki V.
Substitutes
53. Harkonen M. (G)	84. Pikkarainen K.
12. Straka A.	30. Ruusu M. (G)
Coaches
. Mikkola L.	. Soderholm T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
03:31, Rafkin R. (2 min),
04:19, 1 - 0, Levanen E. (G), Nieminen V. (A), Sundstrom J. (A2)
16:40, Maatta J. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 0)
14:21, 2 - 0, Heikkinen L. (G),
15:48, Kangas K. (2 min),
18:59, Bryggman L. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 1)
02:23, Kangas K. (2 min),
02:23, Kangas K. (5 min),
02:23, Lehtonen S. (5 min),
02:23, Rafkin R. (5 min),
03:41, Grainger L. (2 min),
03:57, 2 - 1, Wernblom L. (G), Binner A. (A), Haudum L. (A2)
14:02, Bryggman L. (2 min),
16:46, Johnsson T. (2 min),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vaasa won 2.

Vaasa has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

TPS is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

TPS may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Vaasa has had a series of away games.

Recently, TPS has had a series of home games.

TPS could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that TPS will win today's game, with odds of 2.06.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vaasa won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 43:50. (average 2.2:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Vaasa won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:28. (average 2.8:2.8).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

TPS Turku: 3.47% Vaasan Sport: 0.79%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
11	TPS Turku	10	5	0	0	5	26:21	15
14	Vaasan Sport	11	3	1	2	5	20:31	13

Last Results with these Odds

Vaasan Sport - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 31.14%, but this team recently wins 12% of matches with these odds.

TPS - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 44.81%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vaasan Sport
Finnish SM-liiga
05.09.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - Vaasan Sport	4:0 ✺
04.09.26	Pelicans - Vaasan Sport	6:3 ✺
01.09.26	Vaasan Sport - Jokerit	5:4 penalties ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
27.08.26	Ässät - Vaasan Sport	2:1 ✺
19.08.26	HPK - Vaasan Sport	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLWLL
- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
05.09.26	TPS - HIFK	5:1 ✺
01.09.26	TPS - KooKoo	4:2 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
25.08.26	TPS - Jokerit	4:2 ✺
22.08.26	TPS - Lugano	3:2 ✺
21.08.26	Schwenninger Wild Wings - TPS	4:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Pitsiturnaus
07.08.26	Vaasan Sport - TPS	2:0
Finnish SM-liiga
11.03.26	TPS - Vaasan Sport	3:0
14.02.26	Vaasan Sport - TPS	1:4
13.02.26	TPS - Vaasan Sport	3:1
22.11.25	Vaasan Sport - TPS	3:1
22.10.25	TPS - Vaasan Sport	3:2 penalties
12.09.25	Vaasan Sport - TPS	2:3

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