Match Info

Liiga

Date: 14 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Helsinki Ice Hall (Helsinki) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Finland	18:30	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	17:30	TV4 Play


	HIFK		TPS

	1	X	2
	2.75	4	2.1
	3.00	4.00	2.00
	3.05	4.05	2.12	Watch
	2.95	3.83	2.13
	2.95	3.9	2.12	Watch
	2.85	3.75	2.08
	2.91	4.1	2.11	Watch
	2.9	3.85	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.7)	3.94 ↑ (3.47)	2.09 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HIFK
31.9%

Draw
23.6%

TPS
44.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.2%

26.6%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

28.5%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HIFK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting TPS's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HIFK than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TPS than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for TPS, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

HIFK - TPS Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. HIFK will win (votes: 2 - 50%). TPS will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. HIFK (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Glifford O. (G)	36. Makiniemi E. (G)
28. Pilo L.	40. Lehtonen S.
25. Nassen L.	44. Lindbohm P.
88. Huuhtanen N. (A)	49. Wernblom L.
81. Pakarinen I. (C)	97. Haudum L.
71. Makiaho D.	22. Bryggman L. (A)
Line 2
27. Ahlroth J.	38. Landen A.
83. Nemecek D.	4. Chicoine G.
43. Marleau V.	25. Ikonen Jo.
77. Leschyshyn J.	86. Yliniemi S.
72. Liukas E. (A)	24. Virtanen J.
Line 3
33. Kiviharju A.	2. Tuhkala A.
11. Melart I.	61. Binner A.
91. Ranta S.	10. Ylitalo N.
42. Sinivuori L.	13. Paajanen O. (C)
54. Somervuori J.	19. Savinainen V.
Line 4
67. Puutio K.	7. Lauridsen O. (A)
19. Leppanen O.	84. Pikkarainen K.
18. Uronen A.	21. Maatta J.
93. Vanhatalo L.	57. Munkki V.
Substitutes
82. Karjalainen A.	47. Kuru H.
53. Varonen V. (G)	30. Ruusu M. (G)
Coaches
. Jokinen O.	. Soderholm T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
13:10, Ahlroth J. (2 min),
13:47, Binner A. (2 min),
15:33, Pakarinen I. (2 min),
17:58, 1 - 0, Makiaho D. (G), Pakarinen I. (A),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
00:01, Makiniemi E. ↓, Ruusu M. ↑,
00:31, Lindbohm P. (2 min),
00:58, 2 - 0, Vanhatalo L. (G), Pakarinen I. (A), Makiaho D. (A2)
12:53, Melart I. (2 min),
15:00, Pilo L. (2 min),
15:28, 2 - 1, Paajanen O. (G), Savinainen V. (A), Yliniemi S. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 2)
00:28, 2 - 2, Pikkarainen K. (G), Munkki V. (A), Maatta J. (A2)
09:28, Leppanen O. (2 min),
10:01, 2 - 3, Wernblom L. (G), Bryggman L. (A), Ikonen Jo. (A2)
14:03, 3 - 3, Makiaho D. (G), Ranta S. (A), Pakarinen I. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (0 - 1)
1, Makiaho D. (Penalty Shot),
1, Pikkarainen K. (Penalty Shot),
2, Ranta S. (Penalty Shot),
2, Wernblom L. (Penalty Shot),
3, Pakarinen I. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 14th and 11th in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - 1/8 - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HIFK won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

HIFK may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, TPS has had a run of games away from home.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, HIFK has recorded 11 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 47:47 (averaging 2.4:2.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for HIFK against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 24:23 goals (averaging 2.4:2.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
7	TPS Turku	18	8	1	2	7	51:47	28
12	IFK Helsinki	17	6	1	4	6	48:52	24

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

IFK Helsinki: 5.48% TPS Turku: 5.3%

Last Results with these Odds

HIFK - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.16%, but this team recently wins 47% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HIFK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
10.10.26	HIFK - KalPa	6:1 ✺
08.10.26	Jokerit - HIFK	3:2 AET ✺
03.10.26	Vaasan Sport - HIFK	2:3 OT ✺
26.09.26	Pelicans - HIFK	2:1 ✺
25.09.26	HIFK - JYP	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWLL
- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
10.10.26	Tappara - TPS	4:3 penalties ✺
03.10.26	TPS - JYP	4:1 ✺
30.09.26	Kiekko-Espoo - TPS	4:2 ✺
27.09.26	Ilves - TPS	3:2 ✺
25.09.26	Jokerit - TPS	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
05.09.26	TPS - HIFK	5:1
20.12.25	TPS - HIFK	4:3
19.12.25	HIFK - TPS	3:4 OT
28.11.25	HIFK - TPS	3:2
27.09.25	TPS - HIFK	1:2
21.02.25	HIFK - TPS	3:2
11.01.25	TPS - HIFK	2:3

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