Match Info

NHL

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday

Location: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, NV)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN 2
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 3
Chile	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	NHL.tv
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Slovakia	Nova Sport 1, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Vegas Golden Knights		Pittsburgh Penguins

	1	X	2
	1.91	4.2	3.4	Watch
	1.98	4.3	3.25
	1.95	4.5	3.27
	1.95	4.4	3.2	Watch
	1.85	4.33	2.9
	1.92	4.54	3.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.24)	4.38 ↑ (4.17)	3.22 ↑ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vegas Golden Knights
49%

Draw
21.6%

Pittsburgh Penguins
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

22.7%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

24%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vegas Golden Knights has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vegas Golden Knights's performance.

Pittsburgh Penguins has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pittsburgh Penguins might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vegas Golden Knights than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pittsburgh Penguins than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Vegas Golden Knights - Pittsburgh Penguins Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Vegas will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Pittsburgh will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vegas: 64.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Vegas (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Pittsburgh (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Pittsburgh (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Vegas (votes: 2 - 50%). Pittsburgh (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
33. Hill A. (G)	37. Silovs A. (G)
27. Theodore S.	65. Karlsson E.
3. McNabb B. (A)	28. Wotherspoon P.
61. Stone M.	17. Rust B. (A)
9. Eichel J. (A)	67. Rakell R.
49. Barbashev I.	59. Chinakhov Y.
Line 2
4. Andersson R.	58. Letang K. (A)
15. Hanifin N.	5. Shea R.
93. Marner M. (A)	41. Koivunen V.
48. Hertl T.	18. Novak T.
16. Dorofeyev P.	39. Mantha A.
Line 3
6. Korczak K.	75. Clifton C.
5. Lauzon J.	7. Solovyov I.
42. Bowman B.	85. Hayes A.
10. Sissons C.	81. Kindel B.
21. Howden B.	25. Soderblom E.
Line 4
55. Kolesar K.	55. Acciari N.
62. Dowd N.	46. Lizotte B.
22. Smith C.	19. Dewar C.
Substitutes
40. Schmid A. (G)	74. Skinner S. (G)
Coaches
. Cassidy B.	. Muse D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
08:41, 1 - 0, Sissons C. (G), Bowman B. (A),
16:11, Clifton C. (2 min),
19:28, Novak T. (2 min),
2nd Period (2 - 2)
02:15, Andersson R. (2 min),
05:02, 2 - 0, Dorofeyev P. (G), Korczak K. (A), Bowman B. (A2)
08:26, 2 - 1, Rakell R. (G), Rust B. (A), Shea R. (A2)
09:20, 3 - 1, Marner M. (G), Dorofeyev P. (A),
11:47, Marner M. (2 min),
16:22, 3 - 2, Kindel B. (G), Mantha A. (A), Shea R. (A2)
19:09, Howden B. (2 min),
19:09, Letang K. (2 min),
3rd Period (3 - 0)
04:35, 4 - 2, Dorofeyev P. (G), Marner M. (A),
06:20, 5 - 2, Eichel J. (G), Barbashev I. (A), Theodore S. (A2)
12:21, Mantha A. (2 min),
12:21, Dorofeyev P. (2 min),
12:21, Korczak K. (2 min),
12:21, Mantha A. (2 min),
12:21, Dorofeyev P. (2 min),
19:01, 6 - 2, McNabb B. (G), Eichel J. (A),

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vegas won 2.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Pittsburgh may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Vegas is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Vegas: Hart C. (Lower-Body Injury) Karlsson W. (Lower-Body Injury) Pietrangelo A. (Hip Injury) Rondbjerg J. (Lower-Body Injury) Stone M. (Upper-Body Injury)

There will not play in Pittsburgh: Brazeau J. (Upper-Body Injury) Crosby S. (Knee Injury) Girard S. (Upper-Body Injury) Hayes K. (Upper-Body Injury) Jones C. (Doping) Malkin E. (Suspended)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Vegas won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 43:46. (average 2.9:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Vegas won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 27:17. (average 3.9:2.4).

Outrights of NHL for now

Vegas Golden Knights: 7.11% Pittsburgh Penguins: 1.18%

Last Results with these Odds

Vegas Golden Knights - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 42.2%, but this team recently wins 37% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vegas Golden Knights
NHL
10.03.26	Dallas Stars - Vegas Golden Knights	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Vegas Golden Knights - Edmonton Oilers	2:4 ✺
06.03.26	Vegas Golden Knights - Minnesota Wild	2:4 ✺
04.03.26	Detroit Red Wings - Vegas Golden Knights	3:4 OT ✺
03.03.26	Buffalo Sabres - Vegas Golden Knights	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLWL
- Pittsburgh Penguins
NHL
10.03.26	Carolina Hurricanes - Pittsburgh Penguins	5:4 penalties ✺
08.03.26	Pittsburgh Penguins - Boston Bruins	5:4 OT ✺
07.03.26	Pittsburgh Penguins - Philadelphia Flyers	3:4 penalties ✺
05.03.26	Pittsburgh Penguins - Buffalo Sabres	1:5 ✺
03.03.26	Boston Bruins - Pittsburgh Penguins	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

NHL
01.03.26	Pittsburgh Penguins - Vegas Golden Knights	5:0
11.03.25	Pittsburgh Penguins - Vegas Golden Knights	3:2 OT
07.03.25	Vegas Golden Knights - Pittsburgh Penguins	4:0
20.01.24	Vegas Golden Knights - Pittsburgh Penguins	3:2
19.11.23	Pittsburgh Penguins - Vegas Golden Knights	3:0
05.01.23	Vegas Golden Knights - Pittsburgh Penguins	5:2
01.12.22	Pittsburgh Penguins - Vegas Golden Knights	4:3

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