Match Info

VHL

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Yubileiny (Orsk)


	Yuzhny Ural Orsk		Chelny

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.87	3.67
	1.68	4.38	4.07	Watch
	1.72	4.1	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.72)	4.12 ↑ (4.1)	3.88 ↓ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yuzhny Ural Orsk
53.3%

Draw
22.7%

Chelny
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

22.5%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.1%

22.3%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yuzhny Ural Orsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Chelny has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yuzhny Ural Orsk than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelny than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Chelny Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
60. Ovcharik D. (G)	31. Noskov A. (G)
9. Sitnikov V.	50. Motygullin B. (A)
88. Krylov I. (A)	65. Valiyev R.
91. Suslov K. (A)	10. Ustimkin M.
96. Kurkin M.	13. Sapozhnikov V.
51. Kulyash D.	9. Nasyrov M.
Line 2
24. Salnikov E.	72. Kolmagorov K.
29. Papst R.	62. Naumov G.
72. Rvachev V.	15. Yakutov A.
19. Litvinov I. (C)	68. Silayev I. (C)
11. Mylnikov D.	11. Luchenkov S.
Line 3
39. Shabalin A.	45. Alyayev A. (A)
27. Ostrovsky S.	33. Dergousov D.
77. Zakharov I.	27. Petrov K.
15. Putilov A.	88. Arefyev Y.
98. Kuimov Y.	96. Lomako O.
Line 4
8. Vikulin K.	78. Balashov M.
17. Kovalchuk P.	23. Zaripov A.
10. Shindyaev K.	21. Fedyakin S.
28. Samokhvalov M.	71. Magerya M.
16. Rubtsov S.
Substitutes
32. Kudryavtsev S. (G)	1. Ustimenko K. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
07:29, 1 - 0, Kuimov Y. (G), Putilov A. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
11:00, 2 - 0, Ostrovsky S. (G), Kurkin M. (A),

Preview

In recent matches, Yuzhny Ural has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Chelny has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Yuzhny Ural may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Yuzhny Ural is the team to beat.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Yuzhny Ural won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:7. (average 3.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Yuzhny Ural won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 3.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yuzhny Ural Orsk
VHL
25.09.25	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Bars Kazan	1:4 ✺
23.09.25	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - CSK VVS Samara	1:2 penalties ✺
18.09.25	Kristall Saratov - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	0:1 ✺
16.09.25	Dizel Penza - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	4:0 ✺
14.09.25	Ryazan - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LLWLW
- HC Chelny
VHL
21.09.25	Chelny - Torpedo-Gorky	2:3 penalties ✺
19.09.25	Chelny - Khimik	3:7 ✺
17.09.25	Chelny - Zvezda Moscow	0:2 ✺
12.09.25	Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk - Chelny	5:0 ✺
10.09.25	Rubin Tyumen - Chelny	1:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

VHL
15.12.24	Chelny - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	2:0
05.12.24	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Chelny	2:0
14.02.24	Chelny - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	1:6
06.09.23	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Chelny	5:4 OT

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