Match Info

NRL - Round 23

Date: 8 August 2025, Friday

Location: GIO Stadium (Canberra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox League
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Germany	Magenta Sport


	Canberra Raiders		Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

	1	X	2
	1.4	26	3.1
	1.4	21	3.1
	1.42	22	3.2	Watch
	1.64	15.89	2.49	Watch
	1.4	23	3
	1.47	21	2.84	Watch
	1.47	26	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↑ (1.38)	22.13 ↓ (26)	2.93 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 46.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Canberra Raiders
63.9%

Draw
4.2%

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
31.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

66.7%

3.5%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.3%

3.4%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Canberra Raiders has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Canberra Raiders than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Canberra Raiders - Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Canberra will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Canberra (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:19

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weekes K.	1. Trbojevic T.
2. Stuart J.	2. Saab J.
3. Timoko M.	3. Koula T.
4. Kris S.	4. Talau T.
5. Savage X.	5. Garrick R.
6. Strange E.	6. Brooks L.
7. Fogarty J.	7. Cherry-Evans D. (C)
8. Papalii J.	8. Lodge M.
9. Starling T.	10. Taukeiaho S.
10. Tapine J. (C)	11. Waddell C.
11. Young H.	12. Chee-Kam M.
12. Hosking Z.	13. Trbojevic J.
13. Horsburgh C.	14. Simpkin J.
Substitutes
14. Pattie O.	9. Tevaga J.
15. Sasagi S.	15. Schoupp A.
16. Smithies M.	16. Bullemor E.
17. Mariota A.	17. Sipley T.
Coaches
. Stuart R.	. Seibold A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 6)
4', Trbojevic T. (Try),
5', Garrick R. (Conversion Goal),
11', Strange E. (Try),
12', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
14', Savage X. (Try),
16', Fogarty J. (Missed Conversion),
40', Fogarty J. (Missed Penalty),
40', Cherry-Evans D. (Missed Penalty),
2nd Half (18 - 6)
47', Koula T. (Try),
49', Garrick R. (Conversion Goal),
51', Strange E. (Try),
53', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
55', Strange E. (Try),
57', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
64', Kris S. (Try),
66', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Canberra won 2.

Canberra is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Manly-Warringah has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Canberra might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Canberra won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 438:511. (average 21.9:25.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Canberra won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 217:229. (average 21.7:22.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Canberra Raiders
Australian NRL
02.08.25	St. George Illawarra Dragons - Canberra Raiders	18:12 ✺
27.07.25	Canberra Raiders - Newcastle Knights	44:18 ✺
19.07.25	Canberra Raiders - Parramatta Eels	40:16 ✺
05.07.25	Canberra Raiders - St. George Illawarra Dragons	28:24 ✺
27.06.25	Newcastle Knights - Canberra Raiders	18:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWWWW
- Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
Australian NRL
02.08.25	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Sydney Roosters	4:20 ✺
27.07.25	Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	42:4 ✺
19.07.25	Melbourne Storm - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	16:18 ✺
06.07.25	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - South Sydney Rabbitohs	30:12 ✺
27.06.25	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Wests Tigers	28:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
23.03.25	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Canberra Raiders	40:12
10.08.24	Canberra Raiders - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	24:46
03.05.24	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Canberra Raiders	24:26
21.05.23	Canberra Raiders - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	14:42
27.08.22	Canberra Raiders - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	48:6
02.04.22	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Canberra Raiders	25:6
20.08.21	Canberra Raiders - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	18:19

Canberra Raiders - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide