Match Info
NRL - Round 23Date: 9 August 2026, SundayLocation: GIO Stadium (Canberra)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Australia | Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV |
 New-zealand | SKY Go NZ |
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Canberra Raiders |
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Newcastle Knights |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 44.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)
- The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Canberra Raiders
54.7% | Draw
5.6% | Newcastle Knights
39.7% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML EstimationAnalysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Canberra Raiders has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)Newcastle Knights has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Canberra Raiders than the current prediction. (+1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle Knights than the current prediction. (-0.4%)Canberra Raiders - Newcastle Knights Predictions
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Canberra will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Newcastle will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:21 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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1.  Weekes K.
| 1. Ponga K.
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2. Stuart J.
| 2.  Young D.
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3.  Sasagi S.
| 3. Gagai D.
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4.  Timoko M.
| 5. Marzhew G.
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5. Savage X.
| 6. Sharpe F.
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6. Strange E.
| 7. Smith S.
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7. Sanders E.
| 10. Mooney T.
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8. Horsburgh C.
| 11. McEwen J.
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10. Tapine J.
| 12. Manuleleua F.
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11. Hosking Z.
| 13. Croker M.
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12. Mariota A.
| 14. Graham H.
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13. Smithies M.
| 15. Hopwood C.
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14. Starling T.
| 18. Hunt F.
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| Substitutes |
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9. Pattie O.
| 8. Frizell T.
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15. Roddy J.
| 16. Crouch L.
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16. Papalii J.
| 17. Cant T.
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17. Laurie D.
| 19. Jones B.
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18. Tamale S.
| 20. Winter T.
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19. Nicholson M.
| 22.  Hagan D.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (18 - 18)
- 02:29, Sharpe F. (Try),
- 03:55, Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
- 10:06, Young D. (Try),
- 11:40, Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
- 17:35, Stuart J. (Try),
- 19:30, Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
- 22:38, Hosking Z. (Try),
- 24:04, Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
- 25:53, Ponga K. (Try),
- 27:33, Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
- 34:17, Sasagi S. (Try),
- 35:51, Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (6 - 12)
- 45:03, Sasagi S. (Try),
- 55:26, Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
- 57:54, Gagai D. (Try),
- 59:29, Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
- 64:38, Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
- 78:24, Young D. (Try),
Preview
Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Canberra won 3.Canberra is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).Newcastle has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2). Canberra is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Canberra won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 472:483. (average 23.6:24.2).Including home matches between the teams, Canberra won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 272:253. (average 24.7:23).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Australian NRL | | | 05.04.26 | Newcastle Knights - Canberra Raiders | 32:12 | | 27.07.25 | Canberra Raiders - Newcastle Knights | 44:18 | | 27.06.25 | Newcastle Knights - Canberra Raiders | 18:22 | | 07.07.24 | Canberra Raiders - Newcastle Knights | 12:16 | | 07.03.24 | Newcastle Knights - Canberra Raiders | 12:28 | | 10.09.23 | Newcastle Knights - Canberra Raiders | 30:28 OT | | 29.07.23 | Canberra Raiders - Newcastle Knights | 6:28 |
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